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Home World UEFA Nations League Portugal — Wales

Predictions by Market: Portugal vs Wales

World   /   UEFA Nations League Value pick inside
Portugal
Portugal
Home · last 5 D W D W L
Kick-off
Thu 24 Sep · 18:45
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Wales
Wales
L W W D L Away · last 5

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · POR
68%
Best 1.24
Draw
18%
Best 6.50
Away Win · WAL
15%
Best 14.00
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.00
Fair odds
5.62
book 6.00 · +6.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
Pick confidence
Low
p 18% · EV +6.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (68%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
No value bet found The model's probabilities are close to bookmaker prices, so there is no clear edge right now. The markets below show the most likely outcomes, not value bets.
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win
Probability 14.6%
Odds 14.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.1%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 17.8%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
Home Win Best in group
Probability 67.7%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 4 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 38.3%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 59%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 41%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5 Best in group
Probability 61.7%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 56.9%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 43.2%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 32.3%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Best in group
Probability 85.4%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
POR – WAL @ 6.00
+6.7%
Edge
Forecast →