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Home › Italy › Serie A › Napoli — Atalanta

Predictions by Market: Napoli vs Atalanta

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Sat 22 Nov · 19:45
3:1
Full-time
Atalanta
Atalanta
L D W L D Away · last 5
Referee Marco Di Bello, Italy

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · NAP
51%
Best 2.36
Draw
27%
Best 3.12
Away Win · ATA
22%
Best 3.28
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.45
Fair odds
3.25
book 3.45 · +6.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 31% · EV +6.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (69%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 51.4%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 26.9%
Odds 3.38
Show model details
Implied probability 29.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 21.7%
Odds 3.55
Show model details
Implied probability 28.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 56.9%
Odds 1.82
Show model details
Implied probability 55%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 43.1%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 30.8%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 77.1%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 10%
Odds 10.00
Show model details
Implied probability 10%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 69.2%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 22.9%
Odds 3.80
Show model details
Implied probability 26.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Top pick
Probability 51.3%
Odds 2.03
Show model details
Implied probability 49.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 48.8%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 51.4%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 21.7%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 48.6%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 78.3%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
NAP – ATA @ 3.45
+6.3%
Edge
Forecast →