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Home › Italy › Serie A › AS Roma — Udinese

AS Roma vs Udinese 2:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
AS Roma
AS Roma
Home · last 5 W W W W W
Kick-off
Sun 09 Nov · 17:00
2:0
Full-time
Udinese
Udinese
D W W L L Away · last 5
Referee Giuseppe Collu, Italy
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 58% · book 1.88 ✓
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 62% · book 1.62 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 56% · book 1.77 ✓
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
1.56 – 1.12
Δ +0.44
Possession
58% – 42%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.45 — +10.2% better than the market.

AS Roma holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a moderate home advantage, suggesting control over the match tempo. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Udinese's less robust backline, hinting at a pressing edge for the hosts. Roma's recent form shows some inconsistency, but Udinese's steadier results away suggest a compact block that could limit clear chances.

  • Roma's defensive strength vs Udinese's attack
  • Home momentum with mild advantage
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 3.45 ✗ Lost
AI 32% Implied 29% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ROM 3-4-2-1 · UDI 3-5-2
ROM · 3-4-2-1 3-5-2 · UDI 99 Svilar 23 Mancini 5 Ndicka 22 Hermoso 19 Çelik ⚽ 4 Cristante 17 Koné 43 Wesley 18 Soulé 7 Pellegrini ⚽ 9 Dovbyk 40 Okoye 13 Bertola 27 Kabasele 28 Solet 59 Zanoli 32 Ekkelenkamp 8 Karlström 14 Atta 11 Kamara 10 Zaniolo 18 Buksa
Subs used · ROM
43' Baldanzi ↑ · Dovbyk ↓
74' El Aynaoui ↑ · Pellegrini ↓
74' El Shaarawy ↑ · Soule ↓
90' Ziolkowski ↑ · Franca ↓
90' Ghilardi ↑ · Celik ↓
Subs used · UDI
54' Palma ↑ · Kabasele ↓
72' Piotrowski ↑ · Karlstrom ↓
72' Davis ↑ · Buksa ↓
82' Zemura ↑ · Kamara ↓
82' Bayo ↑ · Zaniolo ↓

Statistics

ROM 2 – 0 UDI
58%
Possession (%)
42%
1.56
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.12
13
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Target
4
2
Shots off Target
1
11
Shots Inside Box
7
3
Corner Kicks
4
2
Offsides
0
13
Fouls
14
85%
Pass Accuracy (%)
78%
2
Yellow Cards
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

15 · 2 – 0
Bryan Cristante
Yellow Card
▮
28'
L. Pellegrini (P)
Penalty · 1–0
⚽
42'
T. Baldanzi ↓ · A. Dovbyk ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
43'
Lorenzo Pellegrini
Yellow Card
▮
45+4'
Half-time · 1 – 0
54'
⇄
M. Palma ↓ · C. Kabasele ↑
Substitution 1
Z. Celik
Assist · G. Mancini · 2–0
⚽
61'
62'
▮
Jesper Karlström
Yellow Card
72'
⇄
J. Piotrowski ↓ · J. Karlstrom ↑
Substitution 2
72'
⇄
K. Davis ↓ · A. Buksa ↑
Substitution 3
N. El Aynaoui ↓ · L. Pellegrini ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
74'
S. El Shaarawy ↓ · M. Soule ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
82'
⇄
J. Zemura ↓ · H. Kamara ↑
Substitution 4
82'
⇄
V. Bayo ↓ · N. Zaniolo ↑
Substitution 5
J. Ziolkowski ↓ · Wesley Franca ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90'
D. Ghilardi ↓ · Z. Celik ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90'
Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

AS Roma beat Udinese 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Pellegrini (42'), Z. Celik (61').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.62 units (Brier 0.096).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.88 — 58% Cashed +0.88 Cashed
Home Win 1.62 — 62% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
BTTS No 1.77 — 56% Cashed +0.77 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.48 — 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.14 — 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.07 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.45 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.15 — 84% Cashed +0.15 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.21 — 62% Cashed +0.21 Cashed
Under 0.5 10.50 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.32 — 78% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Away Win 6.50 — 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.07 — 90% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Draw 4.20 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.36 — 68% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.75 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 4.83 — 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.62u −33% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ROM – UDI @ 3.45
+10.2%
Edge
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