Parma vs Bologna 1:3 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.62 — +10.0% better than the market.

Bologna arrives with strong momentum, boasting a recent winning streak contrasting Parma's mixed form. Despite Parma's home ground, Bologna's superior quality and offensive edge suggest they can challenge effectively. Parma's defense looks vulnerable against Bologna's sharper attack, hinting at a tactical battle where the visitors may press high and exploit spaces.

Bologna's recent form shows confidence and attacking threat.
Parma's defense may struggle against Bologna's offense.
Match likely to have a moderate pace with tactical pressing.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.62 ✗ Lost

AI 68% Implied 62% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

PAR 4-2-2-2 · BOL 4-2-3-1

PAR · 4-2-2-2 4-2-3-1 · BOL

9 Pellegrino

Subs used · PAR

24'

Sorensen ↑ ·

Estevez ↓

40'

Ndiaye ↑ ·

Circati ↓

78'

Hernani ↑ ·

Britschgi ↓

78'

Djuric ↑ ·

Pellegrino ↓

79'

Cutrone ↑ ·

Benedyczak ↓

Subs used · BOL

56'

Moro ↑ ·

Freuler ↓

72'

Fabbian ↑ ·

Odgaard ↓

72'

Dallinga ↑ ·

Castro ↓

82'

Bernardeschi ↑ ·

Orsolini ↓

82'

Cambiaghi ↑ ·

Rowe ↓

Statistics

PAR 1 – 3 BOL

35%

Possession (%)

65%

0.51

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.85

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

63%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

21 · 1 – 3

A. Bernabe

Assist · A. Benedyczak · 1–0

⚽

17'

⚽

S. Castro

Assist · E. Holm · 1–1

O. Sorensen ↓ · N. Estevez ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

24'

Christian Ordoñez

Yellow Card

▮

28'

Christian Ordoñez

Yellow Card

▮

35'

Christian Ordoñez

Red Card

▮

35'

A. Ndiaye ↓ · A. Circati ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

40'

Half-time · 1 – 1

56'

⇄

N. Moro ↓ · R. Freuler ↑

Substitution 1

61'

▮

Santiago Castro

Yellow Card

68'

⚽

S. Castro

1–2

72'

⇄

G. Fabbian ↓ · J. Odgaard ↑

Substitution 2

72'

⇄

T. Dallinga ↓ · S. Castro ↑

Substitution 3

Hernani ↓ · S. Britschgi ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

78'

M. Djuric ↓ · M. Pellegrino ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

78'

Lautaro Valenti

Yellow Card

▮

79'

P. Cutrone ↓ · A. Benedyczak ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

79'

82'

⇄

F. Bernardeschi ↓ · R. Orsolini ↑

Substitution 4

82'

⇄

N. Cambiaghi ↓ · J. Rowe ↑

Substitution 5

87'

▮

Nicolò Cambiaghi

Yellow Card

90'

⚽

J. Miranda

Assist · N. Cambiaghi · 1–3

Milan Đurić

Yellow Card

▮

90+7'

Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Bologna won 3–1 away at Parma. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 87% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.85 to 0.51. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 7, 6 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Bernabe (1'), S. Castro (17'), S. Castro (68'), J. Miranda (90'). Christian Ordoñez was sent off in the 35' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.10 units (Brier 0.252).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.62	—	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.79	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.13	—	55%	Cashed	+1.13	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.79	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.18	—	39%	Cashed	+1.18	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.55	—	32%	Cashed	+1.55	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.81	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.00	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.27	—	83%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.50	—	58%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.45	—	55%	Cashed	+0.45	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.21	—	85%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.12	—	85%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Draw	3.26	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.93	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	4.30	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.90	—	15%	Cashed	+3.90	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.10u	+1% ROI

Parma vs Bologna 1:3: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled