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Home England Premier League Aston Villa — Manchester United

Predictions Aston Villa vs Manchester United December 21, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Sun 21 Dec · 16:30
2:1
Full-time
Manchester United
Manchester United
W W D W W Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham Referee Michael Oliver, England
Home Win · AST
40%
Best 2.10
Draw
24%
Best 3.60
Away Win · MUN
36%
Best 3.45
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 1.77
Fair odds
1.66
book 1.77 · +6.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 60% · EV +6.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (64%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 39.6%
Odds 2.18
Show model details
Implied probability 45.9%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 36.1%
Odds 3.46
Show model details
Implied probability 28.9%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 24.3%
Odds 3.80
Show model details
Implied probability 26.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 57.9%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 42.2%
Odds 2.32
Show model details
Implied probability 43.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 36%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 64%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.4%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 80%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 20%
Odds 4.80
Show model details
Implied probability 20.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.6%
Odds 16.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds 2.46
Show model details
Implied probability 40.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 59.5%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 36.1%
Odds 2.57
Show model details
Implied probability 38.9%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 39.6%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 60.4%
Odds 1.77
Show model details
Implied probability 56.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 63.9%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
AST – MUN @ 1.77
+6.9%
Edge
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