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Home › England › Premier League › Aston Villa — Manchester United

Predictions by Market: Aston Villa vs Manchester United

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Sun 21 Dec · 16:30
2:1
Full-time
Manchester United
Manchester United
W W D W W Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham Referee Michael Oliver, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · AST
40%
Best 2.10
Draw
24%
Best 3.60
Away Win · MUN
36%
Best 3.45
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 1.77
Fair odds
1.66
book 1.77 · +6.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 60% · EV +6.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (64%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 39.6%
Odds 2.18
Show model details
Implied probability 45.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 36.1%
Odds 3.46
Show model details
Implied probability 28.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 24.3%
Odds 3.80
Show model details
Implied probability 26.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 57.9%
Odds 1.71
Show model details
Implied probability 58.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 42.2%
Odds 2.32
Show model details
Implied probability 43.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 36%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 64%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.4%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 80%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 20%
Odds 4.80
Show model details
Implied probability 20.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 5.6%
Odds 16.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds 2.46
Show model details
Implied probability 40.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 59.5%
Odds 1.58
Show model details
Implied probability 63.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 36.1%
Odds 2.57
Show model details
Implied probability 38.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 39.6%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 60.4%
Odds 1.77
Show model details
Implied probability 56.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 63.9%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
AST – MUN @ 1.77
+6.9%
Edge
Forecast →