P
Prognosist
Login Sign Up →
P
Login Sign Up
⚽ Football 📰 News 📈 Forecasts 📅 Today 💹 Value Bets 🏅 Tipsters 🎫 Bookmakers 🏆 Tournament
Home › Italy › Serie A › Fiorentina — AS Roma

Fiorentina vs AS Roma 1:2: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Home · last 5 D L D W D
Kick-off
Sun 05 Oct · 13:00
1:2
Full-time
AS Roma
AS Roma
W W W W W Away · last 5
Referee Andrea Colombo, Italy
Hit
AH Away 0
AH Away 0
AI 62% · book 1.80 ✓
Miss
Home Team Total Under 0.5
Home Team Total Under 0.5
AI 38% · book 2.99 ✗
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 74% · book 1.44 ✓
Total goals
3
1 · 2
xG (open play)
0.84 – 1.35
Δ −0.51
Possession
45% – 55%
AI accuracy
3 / 7
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Team Total Under 0.5 at 2.99 — +13.6% better than the market.

Fiorentina vs Roma — betting preview

Roma arrive with a sturdier overall profile and cleaner game management, while Fiorentina lean on home energy and set pieces. The visitors trend better in recent results and should control more of the territory and chance quality. If the match stays level for long spells, the scoring pace likely dips; an away breakthrough pushes game state toward Roma-favored outcomes.

Our numbers shade toward Roma with draw cover appealing. Low-total angles remain live given the visitors’ compact shape and transition control.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Team Total Under 0.5
Home Team Total Under 0.5 @ 2.99 ✗ Lost
AI 38% Implied 33% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

FIO 3-4-2-1 · ROM 3-4-2-1
FIO · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · ROM 43 Gea 5 Pongračić 18 Marí 6 Ranieri 2 Dodô 8 Mandragora 14 Caviglia 21 Gosens 22 Fazzini 10 Guðmundsson 20 Kean ⚽ 99 Svilar 19 Çelik 23 Mancini 5 Ndicka 43 Wesley 4 Cristante ⚽ 17 Koné 12 Tsimikas 18 Soulé ⚽ 35 Baldanzi 9 Dovbyk
Subs used · FIO
46' Piccoli ↑ · Gudmundsson ↓
67' Ndour ↑ · Fazzini ↓
75' Comuzzo ↑ · Mari ↓
75' Dzeko ↑ · Mandragora ↓
81' Fortini ↑ · Dodo ↓
Subs used · ROM
59' Pellegrini ↑ · Baldanzi ↓
59' Dybala ↑ · Dovbyk ↓
68' Rensch ↑ · Tsimikas ↓
81' Ziolkowski ↑ · Franca ↓
81' El Aynaoui ↑ · Soule ↓

Statistics

FIO 1 – 2 ROM
45%
Possession (%)
55%
0.84
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.35
11
Total Shots
8
3
Shots on Target
3
6
Shots off Target
3
4
Shots Inside Box
5
3
Corner Kicks
4
2
Offsides
0
19
Fouls
21
80%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
2
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

18 · 1 – 2
3'
▮
Bryan Cristante
Yellow Card
M. Kean
Assist · H. Nicolussi Caviglia · 1–0
⚽
14'
22'
⚽
M. Soule
Assist · A. Dovbyk · 1–1
30'
⚽
B. Cristante
Assist · M. Soule · 1–2
Albert Guðmundsson
Yellow Card
▮
43'
Half-time · 1 – 2
R. Piccoli ↓ · A. Gudmundsson ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
59'
⇄
L. Pellegrini ↓ · T. Baldanzi ↑
Substitution 1
59'
⇄
P. Dybala ↓ · A. Dovbyk ↑
Substitution 2
65'
▮
Konstantinos Tsimikas
Yellow Card
C. Ndour ↓ · J. Fazzini ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
67'
68'
▮
Wesley
Yellow Card
68'
⇄
D. Rensch ↓ · K. Tsimikas ↑
Substitution 3
Pablo Marí
Yellow Card
▮
70'
P. Comuzzo ↓ · P. Mari ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
75'
E. Dzeko ↓ · R. Mandragora ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
75'
N. Fortini ↓ · Dodo ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
81'
81'
⇄
J. Ziolkowski ↓ · Wesley Franca ↑
Substitution 4
81'
⇄
N. El Aynaoui ↓ · M. Soule ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

AS Roma won 2–1 away at Fiorentina. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.35 to 0.84. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Kean (14'), M. Soule (22'), B. Cristante (30').

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 3 landed and 4 missed, for a net -1.24 units (Brier 0.157).

Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 3 W · 4 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
AH Away 0 1.80 — 62% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
Home Team Total Under 0.5 2.99 — 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.44 — 74% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Away Win 2.52 — 44% Cashed +1.52 Cashed
BTTS No 1.98 — 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.46 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.08 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each — — — 3 W · 4 L −1.24u −18% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Team Total Under 0.5
FIO – ROM @ 2.99
+13.6%
Edge
Forecast →