Inter vs Cremonese: the hosts bring a clear gap in overall quality and recent output, which should tilt the game state their way early and keep control for long stretches. We still respect a modest draw path if Inter stall, but the baseline leans to a measured home win with limited away threat. Safer angles cluster around conservative cores (unders/ОЗ: нет), while long-shot prices on draw/away hold speculative interest.
Inter beat Cremonese 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.58 to 0.59. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 27 shots to 3, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 13 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.
On the scoresheet: L. Martinez (6'), A. Bonny (38'), F. Dimarco (55'), N. Barella (57'), F. Bonazzoli (87').
Model audit for this match: of 5 graded markets, 1 landed and 4 missed, for a net -3.75 units (Brier 0.173).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 1.69 | — | 62% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 15.00 | — | 12% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 7.50 | — | 16% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS No | 1.73 | — | 60% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Win | 1.25 | — | 72% | Cashed | +0.25 | Cashed |
| Total · 5 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 1 W · 4 L | −3.75u | −75% ROI |
