This match features a clear strength gap with Inter showing significantly stronger overall quality and attacking threat compared to Cagliari. Playing at home, Cagliari has shown decent defensive resilience but struggles to match Inter’s pace and chance creation. Inter’s recent form is mixed but their offensive potential and finishing efficiency suggest they are likely to control the game and score. Cagliari’s home advantage and defensive solidity may limit the margin somewhat, but the balance of probabilities favors an away win. The market also supports a moderately open game with both teams likely to score, and a total goals count leaning towards over 2.5. Asian handicap options on Inter and double chance on Inter or draw provide additional angles with value.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
CAG 3-5-2 · INT 3-5-2
📊 Statistics
CAG 0 – 2 INT42%
Possession (%)
58%
0.18
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
2.82
6
Total Shots
20
0
Shots on Target
5
4
Shots off Target
11
5
Shots Inside Box
15
4
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
2
13
Fouls
14
80%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
0
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
0
⏱ Match events
14 · 0 – 29'
⚽
Lautaro Martínez
Assist · Alessandro Bastoni · 0–1
Matteo Prati ↓ · Andrea Belotti ↑
Substitution 1
44'
45+1'
▮
Carlos Augusto
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 1
46'
⇄
Federico Dimarco ↓ · Carlos Augusto ↑
Substitution 1
Mattia Felici ↓ · Zé Pedro ↑
Substitution 2
58'
Gianluca Gaetano ↓ · Alessandro Deiola ↑
Substitution 3
58'
59'
▮
Nicolò Barella
Yellow Card
64'
⇄
Davide Frattesi ↓ · Nicolò Barella ↑
Substitution 2
64'
⇄
Francesco Pio Esposito ↓ · Marcus Thuram ↑
Substitution 3
72'
⇄
Denzel Dumfries ↓ · Luís Henrique ↑
Substitution 4
Gennaro Borrelli ↓ · Michael Folorunsho ↑
Substitution 4
77'
Riyad Idrissi ↓ · Adam Obert ↑
Substitution 5
77'
82'
⚽
Francesco Pio Esposito
Assist · Federico Dimarco · 0–2
89'
⇄
Ange-Yoan Bonny ↓ · Lautaro Martínez ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 0 – 2
Match recap
Inter won 2–0 away at Cagliari. At half-time it was 0–1.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.82 to 0.18. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 6, 5 on target.
On the scoresheet: Lautaro Martínez (9'), Francesco Pio Esposito (82').
Model audit for this match: of 8 graded markets, 3 landed and 5 missed, for a net -3.87 units (Brier 0.164).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
8 · 3 W · 5 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 1.84 | — | 62% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 1.87 | — | 60% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance X2 | 1.19 | — | 85% | Cashed | +0.19 | Cashed |
| AH Away 0 | 1.26 | — | 75% | Cashed | +0.26 | Cashed |
| Home Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.58 | — | 55% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Home Win | 5.80 | — | 13% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 4.22 | — | 22% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 1.68 | — | 66% | Cashed | +0.68 | Cashed |
| Total · 8 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 3 W · 5 L | −3.87u | −48% ROI |