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Home › Scotland › Premiership › Falkirk — Dundee

Falkirk vs Dundee 1:2: Match Review & Stats

Scotland   /   Premiership Value pick inside
Falkirk
Falkirk
Home · last 5 L D W D L
Kick-off
Sat 10 Oct · 14:00
1:2
Full-time
Dundee
Dundee
L D L W W Away · last 5
Falkirk Stadium · Falkirk
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 2.20 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 2.10 ✗
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 60% · book 1.80 ✓
Total goals
3
1 · 2
xG (open play)
1.92 – 1.43
Δ +0.49
Possession
54% – 46%
AI accuracy
5 / 11
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.44 — +8.9% better than the market.

Dundee enter this clash with a clear quality edge, boasting stronger offensive and defensive metrics. Falkirk’s home advantage is modest but their defensive solidity could keep things tight. Recent form shows both sides struggling for consistency, hinting at a cautious encounter. Expect a tactical battle where Dundee’s sharper attack tests Falkirk’s compact block, but goals may be limited given the balanced xG and under 2.5 goals odds.

  • Dundee’s offensive edge against Falkirk’s defense
  • Home side’s resilience in recent matches
  • Moderate pace suggested by goal market odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.44 ✓ Cashed
AI 76% Implied 69% +0.44u
+44%
ROI on stake

Statistics

FAL 1 – 2 DUN
54%
Possession (%)
46%
1.92
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.43
16
Total Shots
22
5
Shots on Target
10
8
Shots off Target
4
11
Shots Inside Box
16
3
Corner Kicks
10
1
Offsides
1
12
Fouls
11
8
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match recap

Dundee won 2–1 away at Falkirk. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 16, 10 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 10 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 5 landed and 6 missed, for a net -0.88 units (Brier 0.227).

Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 5 W · 6 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 2.20 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.10 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.80 — 60% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
Home Win 1.99 — 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.65 — 47% Cashed +0.65 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.73 — 45% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.75 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.44 — 76% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Away Win 3.50 — 35% Cashed +2.50 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.30 — 65% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.60 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each — — — 5 W · 6 L −0.88u −8% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
FAL – DUN @ 1.44
+8.9%
Edge
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