Match Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk May 23, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.73 — +9.1% better than the market.

Lechia Gdansk enters this clash with a clear quality edge and stronger offensive numbers, suggesting they can control the game despite playing away. Nieciecza shows signs of resilience at home but struggles defensively against high-caliber attacks, which Lechia possesses. Recent form favors Lechia, who have a pressing edge and better goal threat, while the home side relies on a compact block and set-piece opportunities.

Lechia's superior attack vs Nieciecza's defense
Home side's defensive solidity tested
Form and momentum favor the visitors

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.73 ✗ Lost

AI 63% Implied 58% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

TER 3-5-2 · LEC 4-2-3-1

TER · 3-5-2 4-2-3-1 · LEC

9 Jiménez

📊 Statistics

TER 3 – 2 LEC

41%

Possession (%)

59%

2.13

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.19

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

70%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Nieciecza beat Lechia Gdansk 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 82% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.19 to 2.13. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 7, 4 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 10 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +0.01 units (Brier 0.316).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.73	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.75	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.66	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	2.10	—	39%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.05	—	37%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.88	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	6.00	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.29	—	82%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.38	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.44	—	59%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.40	—	59%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Draw	4.30	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.12	—	80%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
AH Home 0	3.00	—	18%	Cashed	+2.00	Cashed
Home Win	3.90	—	18%	Cashed	+2.90	Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	+0.01u	+0% ROI