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Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa 1:3: Match Review & Stats

Poland   /   Ekstraklasa Value pick inside
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
Home · last 5 L W L L L
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sep · 15:30
1:3
Full-time
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
D D W D W Away · last 5
Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku · Bialystok Referee Karol Arys
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 50% · book 2.30 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 42% · book 2.26 ✗
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 55% · book 1.73 ✓
Total goals
4
1 · 3
Possession
68% – 32%
AI accuracy
5 / 11
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 2.30 — +15.0% better than the market.

Legia Warszawa enters this clash with a clear quality edge and a solid defensive record, likely to challenge Jagiellonia’s home momentum. Despite Jagiellonia’s spirited form, their defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed by Legia’s sharper attack. The recent head-to-head draws suggest a tactical, cautious approach, but Legia’s away strength and pressing edge hint at a potential narrow away success.

  • Legia’s defensive solidity vs Jagiellonia’s inconsistent defense
  • Home side’s fluctuating form against away team’s steadier results
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

Jagiellonia’s home edge is tempered by Legia’s superior overall quality and away resilience. Expect a tactical battle with chances on both ends but a slight lean towards Legia capitalizing on defensive lapses.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 2.30 ✓ Cashed
AI 50% Implied 43% +1.30u
+130%
ROI on stake

Statistics

JAG 1 – 3 LEG
68%
Possession (%)
32%
18
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Target
3
7
Shots off Target
5
9
Shots Inside Box
7
4
Corner Kicks
4
3
Offsides
0
13
Fouls
10
0
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match recap

Legia Warszawa won 3–1 away at Jagiellonia. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 68% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 10, 4 on target.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 5 landed and 6 missed, for a net -1.16 units (Brier 0.213).

Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 5 W · 6 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.30 — 50% Cashed +1.30 Cashed
BTTS No 2.26 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.73 — 55% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.08 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.62 — 58% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.75 — 33% Cashed +1.75 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.67 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.44 — 75% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.40 — 67% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.90 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.60 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each — — — 5 W · 6 L −1.16u −11% ROI
Value pick of the night · Away Win
JAG – LEG @ 2.30
+15.0%
Edge
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