Match Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza May 18, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.20 — +15.0% better than the market.

Arka Gdynia holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a modest home advantage, suggesting a compact defensive setup to frustrate Nieciecza. Despite Nieciecza's stronger attack, their recent poor form and Arka's better points per game hint at home momentum. Expect a tactical battle with limited chances, favoring a low-scoring affair.

Home defensive solidity vs away attacking threat
Recent form favors Arka's steadiness
Odds suggest a controlled pace with under 2.5 goals likely

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.20 ✗ Lost

AI 52% Implied 45% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ARK 3-5-2 · TER 3-5-2

ARK · 3-5-2 3-5-2 · TER

19 Gutkovskis

📊 Statistics

ARK 2 – 3 TER

44%

Possession (%)

56%

1.93

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.24

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

74%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Nieciecza won 3–2 away at Arka Gdynia. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.93 to 1.24. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 12, 4 on target. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.24 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.05 units (Brier 0.297).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.20	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.20	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.70	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.10	—	44%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.62	—	50%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.65	—	48%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.52	—	28%	Cashed	+1.52	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.50	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.50	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.00	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.20	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.50	—	22%	Cashed	+3.50	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.03	—	92%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	4.10	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.18	—	72%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.45	—	22%	Cashed	+2.45	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.30	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+1.05u	+6% ROI