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Home Turkey Süper Lig Gençlerbirliği S.K. — Erzurumspor FK

Preview Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Erzurumspor FK August 28, 2026 — Preview and Prediction

Turkey   /   Süper Lig Value pick inside
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Home · last 5 W W
Kick-off
Fri 28 Aug · 18:30
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
L L Away · last 5
Home Win · GEN
47%
Best 2.10
Draw
26%
Best 3.60
Away Win · ERZ
27%
Best 3.68

🧠 Model verdict

Model leans toward Under 2.5 goals — 58% probability.

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

AI preview · 90 sec read

Gençlerbirliği S.K. carries clear home momentum with back-to-back wins, contrasting Erzurumspor FK's recent struggles. The hosts show a pressing edge and better goal threat, reflected in their higher expected goals. Erzurumspor may adopt a cautious approach, aiming to contain and counterattack, but Gençlerbirliği's compact block and home confidence suggest they will control the tempo.

  • Home side's recent form and attacking intent
  • Away team's defensive resilience but limited scoring
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring fewer goals

Most likely outcomes

What the model rates as most likely in each market.

Market Prob. % Pred.
1X2 47% Gençlerbirliği S.K. win
Over/Under 2.5 58% Under 2.5
BTTS 54% No
Double Chance 73% 1X
  • 1X2 Gençlerbirliği S.K. win 47%
  • Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58%
  • BTTS No 54%
  • Double Chance 1X 73%
Open betting analysis

Recent form

Last 5 matches · all competitions
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
W/D/L 4-0-1
Goals (for / against) 9 / 4
Avg goals / match 2.6
Scored in 4/5
Clean sheets 2/5
Both teams scored 2/5
Over 2.5 3/5
Home (W-D-L) 2-0-0
Away (W-D-L) 2-0-1
xG (for / against) 1.68 / 1.67
Erzurumspor FK
W/D/L 0-0-2
Goals (for / against) 0 / 7
Avg goals / match 3.5
Scored in 0/2
Clean sheets 0/2
Both teams scored 0/2
Over 2.5 2/2
Home (W-D-L) 0-0-1
Away (W-D-L) 0-0-1
xG (for / against) 0.41 / 1.86

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
1.50
Goals Scored
0
0.50
Goals Conceded
3.50
1.35
Expected Goals (xG)
0.41
2.50
Shots on Target
2.50
3
Corners
3
39
Possession (%)
50.50
Efficiency index
Adjusted index
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

📡 Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
39
OFF · home
11
6
DEF · home
11
72
OFF · away
17
28
DEF · away
72
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

🎯 Scenario insights

Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins when scoring first
Erzurumspor FK wins when scoring first
Gençlerbirliği S.K. BTTS rate · last 10
30%
Erzurumspor FK BTTS rate · last 2
0%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. Over 2.5 · last 10
50%
Erzurumspor FK Over 2.5 · last 2
100%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. comeback rate · last 10
0%
Erzurumspor FK comeback rate · last 2
0%

🔥 Goal timing

Gençlerbirliği S.K. · last 3 at home

0–15 0%
16–30 0%
31–45 50%
46–60 0%
61–75 50%
76–90 0%
Late-game scoring — most goals come after the 60th.

Top scorers

F. Tongya
GEN · Midfielder
1 G · 1.00 g/90
O. Ülgün
GEN · Attacker
1 G · 0.56 g/90