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Home › Turkey › Süper Lig › Gençlerbirliği S.K. — Erzurumspor FK

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Erzurumspor FK 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Turkey   /   Süper Lig Value pick inside
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Home · last 5 D L L L D
Kick-off
Fri 28 Aug · 18:30
1:1
Full-time
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
D W L W D Away · last 5
Referee U. Ozturk
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 58% · book 2.03 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 54% · book 2.15 ✗
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 47% · book 2.11 ✗
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
0.80 – 0.97
Δ −0.17
Possession
48% – 52%
AI accuracy
6 / 11
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.36 — +7.2% better than the market.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. carries clear home momentum with back-to-back wins, contrasting Erzurumspor FK's recent struggles. The hosts show a pressing edge and better goal threat, reflected in their higher expected goals. Erzurumspor may adopt a cautious approach, aiming to contain and counterattack, but Gençlerbirliği's compact block and home confidence suggest they will control the tempo.

  • Home side's recent form and attacking intent
  • Away team's defensive resilience but limited scoring
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring fewer goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.36 ✓ Cashed
AI 79% Implied 74% +0.36u
+36%
ROI on stake

Statistics

GEN 1 – 1 ERZ
48%
Possession (%)
52%
0.80
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.97
16
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Target
4
6
Shots off Target
4
7
Shots Inside Box
6
3
Corner Kicks
5
2
Offsides
1
15
Fouls
11
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
3
Yellow Cards
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match recap

Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Erzurumspor FK drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 9, 5 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 6 landed and 5 missed, for a net +0.80 units (Brier 0.196).

Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 6 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.03 — 58% Cashed +1.03 Cashed
BTTS No 2.15 — 54% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.11 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.78 — 53% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.86 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.67 — 46% Cashed +0.67 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.36 — 79% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.36 — 73% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.00 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.64 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.60 — 26% Cashed +2.60 Cashed
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each — — — 6 W · 5 L +0.80u +7% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
GEN – ERZ @ 1.36
+7.2%
Edge
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