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Home › Belgium › Jupiler Pro League › SK Beveren — Lommel United

SK Beveren vs Lommel United 1:3: Match Review & Stats

Belgium   /   Jupiler Pro League Value pick inside
SK Beveren
SK Beveren
Home · last 5 L W W L L
Kick-off
Fri 09 Oct · 18:45
1:3
Full-time
Lommel United
Lommel United
W L L D W Away · last 5
Freethielstadion · Beveren Referee Michiel Allaerts, Belgium
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 53% · book 2.22 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 52% · book 2.21 ✗
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 57% · book 1.80 ✗
Total goals
4
1 · 3
xG (open play)
0.73 – 1.50
Δ −0.77
Possession
62% – 38%
AI accuracy
5 / 11
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.44 — +7.3% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.44 ✗ Lost
AI 75% Implied 69% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Statistics

WAA 1 – 3 KVS
62%
Possession (%)
38%
0.73
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.50
9
Total Shots
19
3
Shots on Target
7
3
Shots off Target
9
6
Shots Inside Box
13
12
Corner Kicks
6
1
Offsides
2
6
Fouls
5
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
2
Yellow Cards
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match recap

Lommel United won 3–1 away at SK Beveren. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 62% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.50 to 0.73. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 9, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 12 to 6. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.50 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 5 landed and 6 missed, for a net +1.08 units (Brier 0.380).

Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 5 W · 6 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.22 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.21 — 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.80 — 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.00 — 43% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.68 — 47% Cashed +0.68 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.62 — 48% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.62 — 25% Cashed +1.62 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.44 — 75% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.25 — 79% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.96 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.16 — 21% Cashed +3.16 Cashed
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each — — — 5 W · 6 L +1.08u +10% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
WAA – KVS @ 1.44
+7.3%
Edge
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