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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Academico Viseu — Estoril

Academico Viseu vs Estoril 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
Home · last 5 L W W W W
Kick-off
Sat 10 Oct · 19:30
2:1
Full-time
Estoril
Estoril
L D L L L Away · last 5
Estadio do Fontelo · Viseu Referee Claudio Pereira
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 60% · book 1.90 ✗
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 50% · book 2.28 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 55% · book 2.08 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
0.81 – 1.42
Δ −0.61
Possession
51% – 49%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 2.28 — +14.6% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Home Win
Home Win @ 2.28 ✓ Cashed
AI 50% Implied 44% +1.28u
+128%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ACA 4-2-3-1 · EST 4-2-3-1
ACA · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · EST 98 Ewerton 75 Robinho 41 Correia 2 Michelis 3 Brau 8 Kahraman ⚽ 7 Silva 47 Gohi 14 Messeguem ⚽ 31 Guilherme 33 Clóvis 1 Robles 2 Sánchez 5 Tsoungui 6 Sintes 21 Jurišić 10 Holsgrove 44 Robin 99 Guitane ⚽ 12 Carvalho 35 Amissah 7 Lacximicant
Subs used · ACA
67' Mortimer ↑ · Gohi ↓
67' Mestanza ↑ · Kahraman ↓
83' Zamora ↑ · Guilherme ↓
90+4' Ferreira ↑ · Messeguem ↓
90+4' Araujo ↑ · Clóvis ↓
Subs used · EST
45' Omerovic ↑ · Robin ↓
74' Carvalho ↑ · Sendra ↓
74' Parente ↑ · Jurišić ↓
89' Neves ↑ · Egea ↓

Statistics

ACA 2 – 1 EST
51%
Possession (%)
49%
0.81
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.42
15
Total Shots
15
6
Shots on Target
9
8
Shots off Target
5
7
Shots Inside Box
10
3
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
1
24
Fouls
9
3
Yellow Cards
1
8
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

16 · 2 – 1
27'
▮
Jordan Holsgrove
Yellow Card
Cihan Kahraman
Assist · Anthony Correia · 1–0
⚽
29'
Cihan Kahraman
Yellow Card
▮
31'
45'
⇄
Nail Omerovic ↓ · Milan Robin ↑
Substitution 1
Half-time · 1 – 0
56'
⚽
Rafik Guitane
Assist · João Carvalho · 1–1
Soufiane Messeguem
Yellow Card
▮
60'
Nils Mortimer ↓ · Lorougnon Gohi ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
67'
Alejandro Mestanza ↓ · Cihan Kahraman ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
67'
Anthony Correia
Yellow Card
▮
73'
74'
⇄
Pedro Carvalho ↓ · Ricard Sanchez Sendra ↑
Substitution 2
74'
⇄
Tiago Parente ↓ · Roko Jurišić ↑
Substitution 3
Alvaro Zamora ↓ · João Guilherme ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
83'
Soufiane Messeguem
Assist · Alejandro Mestanza · 2–1
⚽
88'
89'
⇄
André Tiago Ramos das Neves ↓ · Xavier Sintes Egea ↑
Substitution 4
Cristian Ferreira ↓ · Soufiane Messeguem ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90+4'
Paulo Rafael Pereira Araujo ↓ · André Clóvis ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+4'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Academico Viseu beat Estoril 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.42 to 0.81. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Cihan Kahraman (29'), Rafik Guitane (56'), Soufiane Messeguem (88').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.46 units (Brier 0.159).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.90 1.90 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.28 2.23 50% Cashed +1.28 Cashed
BTTS No 2.08 2.07 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.69 1.64 50% Cashed +0.69 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.61 1.61 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.70 1.69 45% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.90 1.90 40% Cashed +0.90 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.22 2.29 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 10.00 10.99 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.39 3.50 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.31 1.30 81% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.36 1.36 76% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Away Win 3.00 3.10 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.15 3.25 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.45 3.45 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.03 1.04 84% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.27 1.25 63% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −4.46u −26% ROI
Value pick of the night · Home Win
ACA – EST @ 2.28
+14.6%
Edge
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