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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › SC Braga — Sporting CP

SC Braga vs Sporting CP 1:3: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
SC Braga
SC Braga
Home · last 5 W L W D L
Kick-off
Fri 09 Oct · 19:15
1:3
Full-time
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
W W D D W Away · last 5
Estádio Municipal de Braga · Braga Referee Joao Pinheiro
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 49% · book 2.38 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 1.87 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 52% · book 1.95 ✗
Total goals
4
1 · 3
xG (open play)
1.54 – 0.97
Δ +0.57
Possession
49% – 51%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.31 — +4.6% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.31 ✓ Cashed
AI 80% Implied 76% +0.31u
+31%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BRA 3-4-2-1 · SPO 4-2-3-1
BRA · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · SPO 31 Fontes 22 Barcia 6 Carvalho 44 Bajrami 2 Gómez 29 Gorby 8 Moutinho 11 Silva 23 Huseinbašić 21 Horta 10 Victor 1 Silva 13 Vagiannidis 72 Quaresma 25 Inácio 22 Fresneda 5 Altimira 4 Andersen 10 Catamo 77 Doumbia 19 Irankunda 7 Ioannidis
Subs used · BRA
66' Dorgeles ↑ · Huseinbasic ↓
67' Aguilera ↑ · Silva ↓
74' Marqués ↑ · Moutinho ↓
74' Wind ↑ · Victor ↓
84' Navarro ↑ · Bajrami ↓
Subs used · SPO
58' Araujo ↑ · Vagiannidis ↓
58' Zalazar ↑ · Andersen ↓
59' Suárez ↑ · Ioannidis ↓
79' Gonçalves ↑ · Irankunda ↓
84' Simões ↑ · Zalazar ↓

Statistics

BRA 1 – 3 SPO
49%
Possession (%)
51%
1.54
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.97
15
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Target
3
5
Shots off Target
6
11
Shots Inside Box
7
5
Corner Kicks
2
0
Offsides
2
11
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

16 · 1 – 3
Rui Silva
Own goal · 1–0
⚽
41'
Half-time · 1 – 0
58'
⇄
Maximiliano Araujo ↓ · Georgios Vagiannidis ↑
Substitution 1
58'
⇄
Rodrigo Zalazar ↓ · Silas Andersen ↑
Substitution 2
59'
⇄
Luis Suárez ↓ · Fotis Ioannidis ↑
Substitution 3
66'
⚽
Luis Suárez
Assist · Nestory Irankunda · 1–1
Mario Dorgeles ↓ · Denis Huseinbasic ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
66'
Gabriel Martínez Aguilera ↓ · Gabriel Silva ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
67'
71'
⚽
Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes
Own goal · 1–2
Tommy Marqués ↓ · João Moutinho ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
Jonas Wind ↓ · Pau Victor ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
74'
79'
⇄
Flávio Gonçalves ↓ · Nestory Irankunda ↑
Substitution 4
82'
⚽
Rodrigo Zalazar
Assist · Geny Catamo · 1–3
Fra Navarro ↓ · Adrian Bajrami ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
84'
⇄
João Simões ↓ · Rodrigo Zalazar ↑
Substitution 5
Sergio Barcia
Yellow Card
▮
89'
89'
▮
Flávio Gonçalves
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 3

Match recap

Sporting CP won 3–1 away at SC Braga. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.54 to 0.97. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 9, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 2. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 0.97 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: Rui Silva (41'), Luis Suárez (66'), Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes (71'), Rodrigo Zalazar (82').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.41 units (Brier 0.201).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.38 2.34 49% Cashed +1.38 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.87 1.75 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.95 1.95 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.97 2.10 45% Cashed +0.97 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.75 1.80 48% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.55 1.55 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.49 2.22 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.31 1.36 80% Cashed +0.31 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.55 1.68 54% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.35 3.10 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.28 1.25 76% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 9.65 9.01 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.06 1.06 90% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.27 1.33 70% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Draw 3.40 3.15 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.30 3.58 24% Cashed +2.30 Cashed
Home Win 3.50 3.10 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.41u −14% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
BRA – SPO @ 1.31
+4.6%
Edge
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