Estoril vs Casa Pia 1:2 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.91 — +11.9% better than the market.

Estoril holds a clear quality edge and a moderate home advantage, suggesting they can control the game tempo at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota. Both sides show recent struggles, but Estoril's slightly better form and defensive solidity could limit Casa Pia's attacking threat. Expect a cautious match with a pressing edge from the hosts and a compact block from the visitors.

Home momentum favors Estoril's structured defense
Casa Pia’s attack faces a tough test against disciplined backline
Moderate pace hints at a low-scoring encounter

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 1.91 ✗ Lost

AI 59% Implied 52% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

EST 4-2-3-1 · CAS 4-2-3-1

EST · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · CAS

14 Begraoui

Subs used · EST

45'

Arnolin ↑ ·

Camblan ↓

60'

Tsoungui ↑ ·

Robin ↓

60'

Guitane ↑ ·

Omerovic ↓

80'

Carvalho ↑ ·

Egea ↓

80'

Lacximicant ↑ ·

Carvalho ↓

Subs used · CAS

45'

Jatta ↑ ·

Araújo ↓

65'

Maurin ↑ ·

Boukammiri ↓

65'

Pauwels ↑ ·

Pedro ↓

74'

Pérez ↑ ·

Clua ↓

87'

Dafe ↑ ·

Rego ↓

Statistics

EST 1 – 2 CAS

53%

Possession (%)

47%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

19 · 1 – 2

27'

⚽

Henrique Araújo (P)

Penalty · 0–1

Ismael Sierra

Yellow Card

▮

41'

Jordan Arnolin ↓ · Axel Camblan ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45'

⇄

Alassana Jatta ↓ · Henrique Araújo ↑

Substitution 1

Half-time · 0 – 1

Antef Tsoungui ↓ · Milan Robin ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

60'

Rafik Guitane ↓ · Nail Omerovic ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

60'

62'

▮

David Sousa

Yellow Card

65'

⇄

Evans Maurin ↓ · Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri ↑

Substitution 2

65'

⇄

Benjamin Pauwels ↓ · João Pedro ↑

Substitution 3

Ricard Sanchez Sendra

Assist · Jordan Holsgrove · 1–1

⚽

70'

72'

⚽

Selvi Clua

Assist · Lawrence Ofori · 1–2

74'

⇄

Sebastián Pérez ↓ · Selvi Clua ↑

Substitution 4

Pedro Carvalho ↓ · Xavier Sintes Egea ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

80'

André Lacximicant ↓ · João Carvalho ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

80'

Yanis Begraoui

Yellow Card

▮

82'

Jordan Arnolin

Yellow Card

▮

85'

87'

⇄

Abdu Dafe ↓ · João Rego ↑

Substitution 5

89'

⚽

Benjamin Pauwels

Assist · Sebastián Pérez · 1–3

90+5'

▮

Alassana Jatta

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Casa Pia won 2–1 away at Estoril. At half-time it was 0–0.

From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Ricard Sanchez Sendra (70'), Selvi Clua (72'), Benjamin Pauwels (89').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.26 units (Brier 0.299).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.74	1.70	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.10	2.10	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.91	2.02	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.00	2.10	39%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.73	1.73	45%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.81	1.72	41%	Cashed	+0.81	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.25	12.99	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.35	4.00	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.40	1.40	76%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.20	1.18	85%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.28	1.26	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.17	2.75	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.68	3.80	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	1.02	80%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.27	1.22	63%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Away Win	4.68	4.74	15%	Cashed	+3.68	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.33	3.38	15%	Cashed	+2.33	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.26u	+2% ROI

Estoril vs Casa Pia 1:2: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled