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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › SC Braga — Estoril

SC Braga vs Estoril 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
SC Braga
SC Braga
Home · last 5 W L W D L
Kick-off
Mon 14 Sep · 19:45
1:0
Full-time
Estoril
Estoril
L D L L L Away · last 5
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 54% · book 2.19 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 58% · book 1.95 ✓
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 35% · book 3.05 ✗
Total goals
1
1 · 0
Possession
58% – 42%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.95 — +13.1% better than the market.

SC Braga arrives with clear home momentum, boasting a strong recent run compared to Estoril’s struggles on the road. Braga’s ability to control matches and limit opponents’ chances suggests a compact defensive setup will frustrate Estoril’s attack. The visitors’ poor form and lower points per game hint at limited offensive threat, favoring a tight contest with few goals.

  • Home side’s solid form and defensive discipline
  • Estoril’s recent away difficulties and low scoring
  • Moderate pace expected, leaning towards a controlled tempo

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 1.95 ✓ Cashed
AI 58% Implied 51% +0.95u
+95%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BRA 3-4-3 · EST 4-2-3-1
Subs used · BRA
45' Bajrami ↑ · Mbi ↓
58' Horta ↑ · Silva ↓
58' Carvalho ↑ · Barisic ↓
64' Gorby ↑ · Tıknaz ↓
81' Wind ↑ · Lagerbielke ↓
Subs used · EST
10' Neves ↑ · Garcia ↓
65' Amissah ↑ · Neves ↓
77' Carvalho ↑ · Sendra ↓
77' Arnolin ↑ · Holsgrove ↓
77' Lacximicant ↑ · Omerovic ↓

Statistics

BRA 1 – 0 EST
58%
Possession (%)
42%
20
Total Shots
12
7
Shots on Target
1
8
Shots off Target
5
13
Shots Inside Box
8
4
Corner Kicks
2
3
Offsides
0
9
Fouls
12
0
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

15 · 1 – 0
10'
⇄
André Tiago Ramos das Neves ↓ · Fabrício Garcia ↑
Substitution 1
34'
▮
Francisco Reis Ferreira
Yellow Card
Adrian Bajrami ↓ · Bright Arrey Mbi ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
45'
Half-time · 0 – 0
Ricardo Horta ↓ · Gabriel Silva ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
58'
Vitor Carvalho ↓ · Adrian Barisic ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
58'
63'
▮
Francisco Reis Ferreira
Red Card
Jean-Baptiste Gorby ↓ · Demir Ege Tıknaz ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
64'
65'
⇄
Samuel Amissah ↓ · André Tiago Ramos das Neves ↑
Substitution 2
77'
⇄
Pedro Carvalho ↓ · Ricard Sanchez Sendra ↑
Substitution 3
77'
⇄
Jordan Arnolin ↓ · Jordan Holsgrove ↑
Substitution 4
77'
⇄
André Lacximicant ↓ · Nail Omerovic ↑
Substitution 5
Jonas Wind ↓ · Gustaf Lagerbielke ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
81'
Jonas Wind
Assist · Jean-Baptiste Gorby · 1–0
⚽
83'
85'
▮
João Carvalho
Yellow Card
88'
▮
Pedro Carvalho
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

SC Braga beat Estoril 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 12, 7 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

On the scoresheet: Jonas Wind (83'). Francisco Reis Ferreira was sent off in the 63' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -1.45 units (Brier 0.163).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.19 2.15 54% Cashed +1.19 Cashed
BTTS No 1.95 1.81 58% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
Double Chance X2 3.05 3.05 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.70 1.67 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.80 1.92 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.62 2.62 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.42 1.41 75% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.19 4.20 32% Cashed +3.19 Cashed
Home Win 1.56 1.36 57% Cashed +0.56 Cashed
Away Win 6.50 9.01 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.10 1.06 82% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.14 1.08 60% Cashed +0.14 Cashed
Draw 4.35 4.67 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 5.03 6.67 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.19 1.20 68% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −1.45u −10% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS No
BRA – EST @ 1.95
+13.1%
Edge
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