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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Moreirense — Maritimo

Moreirense vs Maritimo 3:1: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Moreirense
Moreirense
Home · last 5 L L W D L
Kick-off
Mon 14 Sep · 19:15
3:1
Full-time
Maritimo
Maritimo
L L L D L Away · last 5
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 68% · book 1.63 ✗
Miss
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 43% · book 2.74 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 61% · book 1.81 ✗
Total goals
4
3 · 1
Possession
38% – 62%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.63 — +11.5% better than the market.

Moreirense hosts Maritimo in a clash where both sides show similar form, though Maritimo holds a slight edge in recent points per game. The match hints at a cautious tempo, supported by odds favoring under 2.5 goals. Moreirense’s home resilience and compact defense could stifle Maritimo’s attacking attempts, while Maritimo’s recent momentum suggests they can exploit set-piece opportunities.

  • Home side’s defensive solidity
  • Away team’s recent winning form
  • Low expected goal environment

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 1.63 ✗ Lost
AI 68% Implied 61% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

MOR 4-2-3-1 · MAR 4-3-3
MOR · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · MAR 13 Ferreira 76 Pinto 26 Maracás 66 Batista 27 Kiko 8 Stjepanović 23 John 19 Andrade 7 Mendonça ⚽ 10 Bondoso 79 Vonić ⚽ 13 Pastor 2 Julião 4 Fernandes 44 Correia ⚽ 23 Henrique 14 Guzzo 6 Andrade 18 Danilović 35 Limbombe 17 Butzke 10 Tejón
Subs used · MOR
61' Parsemain ↑ · Vonić ↓
61' Araújo ↑ · Bondoso ↓
69' Alonso ↑ · John ↓
81' Monteiro ↑ · Gonzaga ↓
81' Songa ↑ · Mendonça ↓
Subs used · MAR
45' Dominguez ↑ · Andrade ↓
45' Ayuma ↑ · Limbombe ↓
71' Bamba ↑ · Danilović ↓
81' Bassouamina ↑ · Guzzo ↓
81' Boakye ↑ · Tejón ↓

Statistics

MOR 3 – 1 MAR
38%
Possession (%)
62%
11
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Target
2
4
Shots off Target
3
7
Shots Inside Box
6
3
Corner Kicks
5
14
Fouls
16
1
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

18 · 3 – 1
8'
▮
Rodri Andrade
Yellow Card
Kiko Bondoso
Yellow Card
▮
11'
Manuel Mendonça
Assist · Tiago Andrade · 1–0
⚽
17'
Leonardo Vonić
Assist · Kiko Bondoso · 2–0
⚽
28'
45'
⇄
Maxime Dominguez ↓ · Rodri Andrade ↑
Substitution 1
45'
⇄
Israel Isaac Ayuma ↓ · Bryan Limbombe ↑
Substitution 2
Half-time · 2 – 0
59'
▮
Maxime Dominguez
Yellow Card
Alexandre Parsemain ↓ · Leonardo Vonić ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
61'
Landerson Costa Araújo ↓ · Kiko Bondoso ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
Rodrigo Alonso ↓ · Nile John ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
69'
71'
⇄
Samuel Bamba ↓ · Vladan Danilović ↑
Substitution 3
79'
⚽
Romain Correia
2–1
Kevyn Monteiro ↓ · Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
81'
Chipyoka Songa ↓ · Manuel Mendonça ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
81'
81'
⇄
Mons Rogeani Bassouamina ↓ · Raphael Guzzo ↑
Substitution 4
81'
⇄
Maurice Boakye ↓ · Martín Tejón ↑
Substitution 5
Alexandre Parsemain (P)
Penalty · 3–1
⚽
86'
90+3'
▮
Israel Isaac Ayuma
Yellow Card
Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

Moreirense beat Maritimo 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 62% of the ball. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Manuel Mendonça (17'), Leonardo Vonić (28'), Romain Correia (79'), Alexandre Parsemain (86').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.29 units (Brier 0.306).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.63 1.62 68% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 2.74 2.75 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.81 1.82 61% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.75 2.75 35% Cashed +1.75 Cashed
Away Win 2.95 2.65 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.91 1.89 39% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.32 2.30 32% Cashed +1.32 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.74 1.98 37% Cashed +0.74 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.12 1.88 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.36 1.46 66% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.52 1.42 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 7.50 8.00 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.10 3.15 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.19 1.20 85% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.06 1.07 84% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.38 1.40 57% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.19 4.00 15% Cashed +3.19 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −0.29u −2% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
MOR – MAR @ 1.63
+11.5%
Edge
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