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Home › Portugal › Primeira Liga › Alverca — Estrela

Alverca vs Estrela 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
Alverca
Alverca
Home · last 5 D L W W W
Kick-off
Sat 15 Aug · 14:30
2:2
Full-time
Estrela
Estrela
D W D L L Away · last 5
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · Alverkaduribajo Referee Jose Bessa, Portugal
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 54% · book 2.20 ✓
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 57% · book 1.85 ✓
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 58% · book 1.66 ✓
Total goals
4
2 · 2
xG (open play)
1.75 – 1.29
Δ +0.46
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.85 — +6.0% better than the market.

Alverca hosts Estrela in a Primeira Liga clash where recent form slightly favors the visitors, who have shown resilience with draws, while Alverca is coming off a loss. The midfield battle and defensive solidity will be key, as both sides have shared draws in their recent encounters. Expect a balanced tempo with a moderate goal threat, supported by odds suggesting a decent chance for goals and both teams to score.

  • Estrela's steadier form offers a subtle edge.
  • Home side's motivation to bounce back could spark intensity.
  • Historical draws hint at a tactical, cautious approach.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes @ 1.85 ✓ Cashed
AI 57% Implied 54% +0.85u
+85%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ALV 3-4-2-1 · EST 4-2-3-1
ALV · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · EST 31 Mendes 14 Baseya 4 Bojang 33 Meupiyou 2 Touaizi 6 Gui 25 Luccas ⚽ 12 James 10 Chiquinho 22 Figueiredo 9 Vivaldo ⚽ 24 Linck 17 Encada 5 Leković 30 Patrick 55 Soares 8 Robinho 39 Doué 99 Marcus ⚽ 14 Zvonarek 10 Stoica 37 Antonetti ⚽
Subs used · ALV
59' Lucas ↑ · Gui ↓
75' Chissumba ↑ · James ↓
83' Essimi ↑ · Meupiyou ↓
83' Moreira ↑ · Luccas ↓
83' J. Merheg ↑ · Semedo ↓
Subs used · EST
64' Pedro Vanga ↑ · Robinho ↓
64' Scholze ↑ · Encada ↓
64' Souza ↑ · Stoica ↓
88' van Hooijdonk ↑ · Antonetti ↓
90' Mincarelli ↑ · Soares ↓

Statistics

ALV 2 – 2 EST
46%
Possession (%)
54%
1.75
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.29
14
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Target
7
9
Shots off Target
3
10
Shots Inside Box
8
2
Corner Kicks
0
2
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
12
81%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
2
Yellow Cards
4
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

21 · 2 – 2
D. Gui
Yellow Card
▮
14'
17'
▮
Luan Patrick
Yellow Card
35'
▮
S. Lekovic
Yellow Card
43'
▮
G. Doue
Yellow Card
V. Semedo
Yellow Card
▮
44'
Half-time · 0 – 0
51'
⚽
L. Antonetti
0–1
Ian Luccas
Assist · I. James · 1–1
⚽
58'
Rayan Lucas ↓ · D. Gui ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
59'
V. Semedo
Assist · Rayan Lucas · 2–1
⚽
62'
64'
⇄
E. Pedro Vanga ↓ · Robinho ↑
Substitution 1
64'
⇄
M. Scholze ↓ · J. Encada ↑
Substitution 2
64'
⇄
B. Souza ↓ · I. Stoica ↑
Substitution 3
69'
⚽
A. Marcus
Assist · Rafa Soares · 2–2
Chiquinho
Red Card
▮
74'
Chissumba ↓ · I. James ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
75'
M. Essimi ↓ · B. Meupiyou ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
83'
V. Moreira ↓ · Ian Luccas ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
83'
S. J. Merheg ↓ · V. Semedo ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
83'
85'
▮
E. Pedro Vanga
Yellow Card
88'
⇄
S. van Hooijdonk ↓ · L. Antonetti ↑
Substitution 4
90'
⇄
L. Mincarelli ↓ · Rafa Soares ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Alverca and Estrela drew 2–2. At half-time it was 0–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 10, 4 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Antonetti (51'), Ian Luccas (58'), V. Semedo (62'), A. Marcus (69'). Chiquinho was sent off in the 74' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +0.50 units (Brier 0.210).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 2.20 2.15 54% Cashed +1.20 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.85 1.85 57% Cashed +0.85 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.66 1.67 58% Cashed +0.66 Cashed
Home Win 2.19 2.17 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.73 1.67 46% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.85 1.88 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.47 2.46 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.60 1.56 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.80 3.77 33% Cashed +2.80 Cashed
Away Win 3.38 3.50 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.32 1.29 69% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Under 1.5 2.89 3.10 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.32 1.33 76% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Draw 3.35 3.22 27% Cashed +2.35 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.19 1.22 67% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L +0.50u +3% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
ALV – EST @ 1.85
+6.0%
Edge
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