Everton vs Nottingham Forest 3:0 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.33 — +5.8% better than the market.

Everton hold a clear quality edge and benefit from a solid defensive setup that could frustrate Nottingham Forest's attack. Despite Forest's recent strong form, Everton's home momentum and better defensive resilience suggest a tight contest with limited goals. The pace hints at a controlled tempo, favoring Everton's structured approach.

Home defensive solidity vs away attack
Everton's recent consistent form
Moderate goal environment expected

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 1.33 ✓ Cashed

AI 80% Implied 75% +0.33u

+33%

ROI on stake

Lineups

EVE 4-2-3-1 · NOT 4-2-3-1

EVE · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · NOT

11 Barry ⚽

Subs used · EVE

62'

Beto ↑ ·

Barry ↓

73'

McNeil ↑ ·

Alcaraz ↓

86'

Dibling ↑ ·

Grealish ↓

Subs used · NOT

46'

Hudson-Odoi ↑ ·

Ndoye ↓

46'

Yates ↑ ·

Sangare ↓

46'

Abbott ↑ ·

Savona ↓

62'

Dominguez ↑

Statistics

EVE 3 – 0 NOT

42%

Possession (%)

58%

1.08

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.46

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

17 · 3 – 0

▮

Nicolò Savona

Yellow Card

N. Milenkovic

Own goal · 1–0

⚽

T. Barry

Assist · I. Ndiaye · 2–0

⚽

45'

Half-time · 2 – 0

46'

⇄

C. Hudson-Odoi ↓ · D. Ndoye ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

R. Yates ↓ · I. Sangare ↑

Substitution 2

46'

⇄

Z. Abbott ↓ · N. Savona ↑

Substitution 3

45+3'

▮

Morato

Yellow Card

54'

▮

Nikola Milenković

Yellow Card

Thierno Barry

Yellow Card

▮

57'

Beto ↓ · T. Barry ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

62'

⇄

N. Dominguez ↓ ·

Substitution 4

James Tarkowski

Yellow Card

▮

73'

D. McNeil ↓ · C. Alcaraz ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

K. Dewsbury-Hall

Assist · J. O'Brien · 3–0

⚽

80'

Vitaliy Mykolenko

Yellow Card

▮

84'

T. Dibling ↓ · J. Grealish ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

86'

Jake O'Brien

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

Everton beat Nottingham Forest 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.08 to 0.46. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 11 shots to 6, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 3. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.08 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: N. Milenkovic (2'), T. Barry (45'), K. Dewsbury-Hall (80').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.92 units (Brier 0.136).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.27	—	52%	Cashed	+1.27	Cashed
BTTS No	1.95	—	54%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.78	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.21	—	42%	Cashed	+1.21	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.73	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.58	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.33	—	80%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.25	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.56	—	52%	Cashed	+0.56	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.28	—	79%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.50	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.09	—	89%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.39	—	68%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Draw	3.36	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.00	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.65	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.92u	−23% ROI

Everton vs Nottingham Forest 3:0: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled