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Home › Italy › Serie A › Sassuolo — AC Milan

Sassuolo vs AC Milan 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
Home · last 5 W D W L D
Kick-off
Sun 11 Oct · 16:00
1:1
Full-time
AC Milan
AC Milan
W D D W D Away · last 5
Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore · Reggio Emilia Referee Francesco Fourneau
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 59% · book 1.83 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 48% · book 2.00 ✓
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 55% · book 1.72 ✓
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.27 – 1.23
Δ +0.04
Possession
41% – 59%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.83 — +7.6% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 1.83 ✗ Lost
AI 59% Implied 55% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

SAS 4-3-3 · MIL 4-4-1-1
SAS · 4-3-3 4-4-1-1 · MIL 49 Murić 20 Van der Brempt 15 Ćaleta-Car 16 Leysen 3 Doig 17 Adžić 18 Matić 50 Bakola 10 Berardi 94 Esposito 45 Laurienté 16 Maignan 34 Gila 46 Gabbia 31 Pavlović 2 Estupiñán 21 Chukwueze 80 Musah 12 Rabiot ⚽ 22 Moreira 11 Pulišić 9 Ramos
Subs used · SAS
26' Odenthal ↑ · Leysen ↓
60' Bowie ↑ · Esposito ↓
60' Thorstvedt ↑ · Adzic ↓
79' Cinquegrano ↑ · Brempt ↓
79' Lipani ↑ · Matić ↓
Subs used · MIL
20' Winter ↑ · Gabbia ↓
45' Modrić ↑ · Estupinan ↓
78' Jashari ↑ · Musah ↓
78' Cissè ↑ · Pulisic ↓
85' Hutchinson ↑ · Chukwueze ↓

Statistics

SAS 1 – 1 MIL
41%
Possession (%)
59%
1.27
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.23
10
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
6
4
Shots off Target
2
4
Shots Inside Box
10
3
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
0
13
Fouls
11
1
Yellow Cards
4
5
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

17 · 1 – 1
20'
⇄
Koni De Winter ↓ · Matteo Gabbia ↑
Substitution 1
Cas Odenthal ↓ · Fedde Leysen ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
26'
41'
▮
Pervis Estupinan
Yellow Card
45'
⇄
Luka Modrić ↓ · Pervis Estupinan ↑
Substitution 2
45+3'
▮
Koni De Winter
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
Kieron Bowie ↓ · Sebastiano Esposito ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
60'
Kristian Thorstvedt ↓ · Vasilije Adzic ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
60'
63'
⚽
Adrien Rabiot
Assist · Luka Modrić · 0–1
Cas Odenthal
1–1
⚽
68'
78'
⇄
Ardon Jashari ↓ · Yunus Musah ↑
Substitution 3
78'
⇄
Alphadjo Cissè ↓ · Christian Pulisic ↑
Substitution 4
Simone Cinquegrano ↓ · Ignace Van der Brempt ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
79'
Luca Lipani ↓ · Nemanja Matić ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
79'
85'
⇄
Omari Hutchinson ↓ · Samuel Chukwueze ↑
Substitution 5
87'
▮
Gonçalo Ramos
Yellow Card
90+1'
▮
Strahinja Pavlovic
Yellow Card
Kristian Thorstvedt
Yellow Card
▮
90+4'
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Sassuolo and AC Milan drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 59% of the ball. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Adrien Rabiot (63'), Cas Odenthal (68').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -1.86 units (Brier 0.198).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 1.83 1.81 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.00 2.20 48% Cashed +1.00 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.72 1.61 55% Cashed +0.72 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.80 1.67 52% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.05 2.24 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.95 1.95 41% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.22 1.21 83% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.56 2.56 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.32 1.36 59% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.36 1.45 70% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.85 4.50 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.24 1.18 76% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Draw 3.65 3.65 24% Cashed +2.65 Cashed
AH Home 0 3.17 3.32 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 4.10 4.26 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −1.86u −12% ROI
Value pick of the night · Away Win
SAS – MIL @ 1.83
+7.6%
Edge
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