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Home › Italy › Serie A › Parma — Genoa

Parma vs Genoa 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Parma
Parma
Home · last 5 L D L W L
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sep · 13:00
2:1
Full-time
Genoa
Genoa
L L D L W Away · last 5
Stadio Ennio Tardini · Parma Referee Maurizio Mariani, Italy
Miss
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 48% · book 2.57 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 65% · book 1.69 ✗
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 38% · book 2.53 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
0.32 – 0.76
Δ −0.44
Possession
42% – 58%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.69 — +9.9% better than the market.

Parma hosts Genoa in a Serie A clash where tight defenses and cautious play are likely. Both sides show recent struggles, but Parma's slight home momentum and marginally better recent points per game hint at a compact, low-scoring encounter. The teams' history of low-scoring draws supports a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances.

  • Home side's modest form edge and defensive solidity
  • Genoa's away resilience but limited attacking threat
  • Odds suggest a slower pace and under 2.5 goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 1.69 ✗ Lost
AI 65% Implied 59% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

PAR 3-4-2-1 · GEN 3-4-2-1
PAR · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · GEN 40 Corvi 15 Delprato 34 Carlos 37 Troilo 72 Drobnic 4 Sierro 16 Keita 14 Valeri 76 Lontani 19 Touré 9 Romero ⚽ 1 Bijlow 27 Marcandalli 5 Østigård 34 Otoa 3 Ehizibue 32 Frendrup 97 Sow 77 Ellertsson 10 Messias 8 Baldanzi 18 Osmajić ⚽
Subs used · PAR
56' Elphege ↑ · Romero ↓
56' Almqvist ↑ · B. Toure ↓
67' Fabbian ↑ · Lontani ↓
81' Britschgi ↑ · Carlos ↓
81' Ordonez ↑ · Sierro ↓
Subs used · GEN
60' El Shaarawy ↑ · Ehizibue ↓
60' Puczka ↑ · Otoa ↓
69' Colombo ↑ · Baldanzi ↓
85' Vitinha ↑ · Sow ↓
85' J. Traore ↑ · Messias ↓

Statistics

PAR 2 – 1 GEN
42%
Possession (%)
58%
0.32
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.76
5
Total Shots
12
2
Shots on Target
5
2
Shots off Target
3
3
Shots Inside Box
7
2
Corner Kicks
5
3
Offsides
1
15
Fouls
12
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
3
Yellow Cards
3
4
Goalkeeper Saves
0

Match events

19 · 2 – 1
D. Drobnic
Yellow Card
▮
9'
14'
▮
S. Otoa
Yellow Card
D. Romero
Assist · E. B. Toure · 1–0
⚽
38'
44'
▮
A. Marcandalli
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
N. Elphege ↓ · D. Romero ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
56'
P. Almqvist ↓ · E. B. Toure ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
56'
60'
⇄
S. El Shaarawy ↓ · K. Ehizibue ↑
Substitution 1
60'
⇄
D. Puczka ↓ · S. Otoa ↑
Substitution 2
G. Fabbian ↓ · S. Lontani ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
67'
69'
⇄
L. Colombo ↓ · T. Baldanzi ↑
Substitution 3
70'
⚽
M. Osmajic
Assist · L. Colombo · 1–1
P. Almqvist
Assist · N. Elphege · 2–1
⚽
80'
S. Britschgi ↓ · Diego Carlos ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
81'
C. Ordonez ↓ · V. Sierro ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
81'
85'
⇄
Vitinha ↓ · D. Sow ↑
Substitution 4
85'
⇄
H. J. Traore ↓ · Junior Messias ↑
Substitution 5
E. Delprato
Yellow Card
▮
85'
90+2'
▮
M. E. Ellertsson
Yellow Card
M. Troilo
Yellow Card
▮
90+3'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Parma beat Genoa 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 5, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 2 from 0.32 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Romero (38'), M. Osmajic (70'), P. Almqvist (80').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.97 units (Brier 0.256).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 1.5 2.57 2.70 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.69 1.75 65% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.53 2.55 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.08 1.99 35% Cashed +1.08 Cashed
AH Home 0 2.14 2.15 33% Cashed +1.14 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.79 1.75 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.55 2.51 27% Cashed +1.55 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.47 1.53 73% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.47 1.50 62% Cashed +0.47 Cashed
Under 0.5 6.50 6.99 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.00 3.10 33% Cashed +2.00 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.38 1.36 67% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.00 2.95 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.56 1.47 52% Cashed +0.56 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.15 1.15 88% Cashed +0.15 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.08 1.08 79% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.85 4.50 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −1.97u −12% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS No
PAR – GEN @ 1.69
+9.9%
Edge
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