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Home › Italy › Serie A › Lazio — Genoa

Lazio vs Genoa 1:0: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Lazio
Lazio
Home · last 5 W W D W W
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug · 18:45
1:0
Full-time
Genoa
Genoa
L L D L W Away · last 5
Referee E. Feliciani
Hit
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 45% · book 2.69 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 64% · book 1.73 ✓
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 60% · book 1.62 ✗
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
1.55 – 0.58
Δ +0.97
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.73 — +10.4% better than the market.

Lazio enters this Serie A clash with clear home momentum, having won their last game while Genoa are struggling after a recent loss. The home side's solid form and pressing edge could challenge Genoa's defense, which has shown vulnerabilities. Expect a tactical battle with a tendency towards a compact block from Genoa, aiming to frustrate Lazio's attacking attempts.

  • Home momentum favors Lazio's confidence
  • Genoa likely to deploy a compact defensive setup
  • Moderate pace suggested by odds hints at a controlled tempo

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 1.73 ✓ Cashed
AI 64% Implied 58% +0.73u
+73%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LAZ 4-3-3 · GEN 3-4-2-1
LAZ · 4-3-3 3-4-2-1 · GEN 35 Mandas 15 Mussolini 5 Doekhi 25 Provstgaard 17 Tavares 16 Frattesi ⚽ 6 Rovella 24 Taylor 22 Cancellieri 19 Dia 10 Zaccagni 1 Bijlow 27 Marcandalli 5 Østigård 22 Vásquez 15 Norton-Cuffy 32 Frendrup
97 Sow
77 Ellertsson 8 Baldanzi 9 Vitinha 29 Colombo
Subs used · LAZ
37' Belahyane ↑ · Rovella ↓
63' Pedraza ↑ · Tavares ↓
63' Isaksen ↑ · Cancellieri ↓
80' Pinamonti ↑ · Dia ↓
80' Lazzari ↑ · Floriani ↓
Subs used · GEN
58' Messias ↑ · Sow ↓
63' Osmajic ↑ · Vitinha ↓
78' Amorim ↑ · Vasquez ↓
78' Meichtry ↑ · Baldanzi ↓

Statistics

LAZ 1 – 0 GEN
46%
Possession (%)
54%
1.55
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.58
15
Total Shots
8
2
Shots on Target
1
8
Shots off Target
4
8
Shots Inside Box
5
4
Corner Kicks
2
0
Offsides
2
18
Fouls
6
86%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
1
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

14 · 1 – 0
14'
▮
L. Ostigard
Yellow Card
D. Frattesi
Assist · N. Tavares · 1–0
⚽
25'
35'
▮
D. De Rossi
Yellow Card
R. Belahyane ↓ · N. Rovella ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
37'
Half-time · 1 – 0
58'
⇄
Junior Messias ↓ · D. Sow ↑
Substitution 1
A. Pedraza ↓ · N. Tavares ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
63'
G. Isaksen ↓ · M. Cancellieri ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
63'
63'
⇄
M. Osmajic ↓ · Vitinha ↑
Substitution 2
78'
⇄
Amorim ↓ · J. Vasquez ↑
Substitution 3
78'
⇄
F. Meichtry ↓ · T. Baldanzi ↑
Substitution 4
A. Pinamonti ↓ · B. Dia ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
80'
M. Lazzari ↓ · R. Floriani ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
80'
M. Zaccagni
Yellow Card
▮
90+5'
90+5'
▮
Amorim
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Lazio beat Genoa 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.55 to 0.58. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 8, 2 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Frattesi (25').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.76 units (Brier 0.150).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 1.5 2.69 2.62 45% Cashed +1.69 Cashed
BTTS No 1.73 1.72 64% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.62 1.62 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.25 2.33 40% Cashed +1.25 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.03 2.02 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.38 2.62 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.57 1.53 70% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
Under 0.5 7.00 6.49 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.32 3.60 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.22 1.29 72% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Draw 3.10 2.90 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.55 2.42 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.43 1.47 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.19 1.17 86% Cashed +0.19 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.54 1.60 40% Cashed +0.54 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.05 1.07 82% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Over 3.5 4.43 5.00 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.76u −22% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS No
LAZ – GEN @ 1.73
+10.4%
Edge
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