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Home › Italy › Serie A › Fiorentina — Frosinone

Fiorentina vs Frosinone 0:3: Match Review & Stats

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Home · last 5 L L W D L
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug · 16:30
0:3
Full-time
Frosinone
Frosinone
W W D W L Away · last 5
Referee G. Collu
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 57% · book 2.00 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 59% · book 1.91 ✓
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 49% · book 2.25 ✓
Total goals
3
0 · 3
xG (open play)
1.88 – 1.06
Δ +0.82
Possession
60% – 40%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.00 — +14.7% better than the market.

Fiorentina and Frosinone both enter this Serie A clash on the back of recent losses, suggesting a cautious start. The home side's historical dominance and slight home edge hint at a controlled tempo, likely favoring a compact defensive setup. Expect a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances, as both teams seek to stabilize early in the season.

  • Fiorentina's home momentum and past strong results against Frosinone
  • Both sides showing recent form struggles, indicating a tight contest
  • Odds suggest a moderate pace with under 2.5 goals likely

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.00 ✗ Lost
AI 57% Implied 50% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

FIO 4-3-3 · FRO 4-3-3
FIO · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · FRO 43 Gea 20 Jiménez 3 Drăgușin 5 Pongračić 21 Valde 27 Ndour 42 Inao Oulaï 14 Atta 30 Mastantuono 11 Guðmundsson 22 Palmisani 20 Oyono 3 Calvani 30 Monterisi 73 Masini 14 Calò 10 Schmid 40 Fini 9 Raimondo ⚽ 17 Kvernadze
Subs used · FIO
61' Fagioli ↑ · Ndour ↓
61' Viery ↑ · Pongračić ↓
71' Mandragora ↑ · Gudmundsson ↓
71' Brescianini ↑ · Oulaï ↓
84' Mário ↑ · Jiménez ↓
Subs used · FRO
45' Zerbin ↑ · Fini ↓
74' Terzić ↑ · Bracaglia ↓
74' Cittadini ↑ · Calvani ↓
82' Grillitsch ↑ · Calò ↓
89' Birligea ↑ · Raimondo ↓

Statistics

FIO 0 – 3 FRO
60%
Possession (%)
40%
1.88
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.06
25
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
6
13
Shots off Target
3
14
Shots Inside Box
10
8
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
1
14
Fouls
21
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
72%
3
Yellow Cards
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

20 · 0 – 3
8'
▮
Antonio Raimondo
Yellow Card
Álex Jiménez
Yellow Card
▮
24'
24'
▮
Gabriele Bracaglia
Yellow Card
26'
⚽
Antonio Raimondo
Assist · Giorgi Kvernadze · 0–1
38'
⚽
Gabriele Bracaglia
Assist · Giacomo Calò · 0–2
45'
⇄
Alessio Zerbin ↓ · Seydou Fini ↑
Substitution 1
45+2'
▮
Gabriele Calvani
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 2
Albert Gudmundsson
Yellow Card
▮
49'
Nicolo Fagioli ↓ · Cher Ndour ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
61'
Viery ↓ · Marin Pongračić ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
61'
Fabio·Grosso
Yellow Card
▮
64'
68'
⚽
Antonio Raimondo
Assist · Gabriele Bracaglia · 0–3
Rolando Mandragora ↓ · Albert Gudmundsson ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
71'
Marco Brescianini ↓ · Christ Inao Oulaï ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
71'
74'
⇄
Aleksa Terzić ↓ · Gabriele Bracaglia ↑
Substitution 2
74'
⇄
Giorgio Cittadini ↓ · Gabriele Calvani ↑
Substitution 3
82'
⇄
Florian Grillitsch ↓ · Giacomo Calò ↑
Substitution 4
João Mário ↓ · Álex Jiménez ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
89'
⇄
Daniel Birligea ↓ · Antonio Raimondo ↑
Substitution 5
Radu Drăguşin
Yellow Card
▮
90'
Full-time · 0 – 3

Match recap

Frosinone won 3–0 away at Fiorentina. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 83% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.88 to 1.06. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 25 shots to 12, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 5. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.06 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Antonio Raimondo (26'), Gabriele Bracaglia (38'), Antonio Raimondo (68').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +2.38 units (Brier 0.258).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.00 2.10 57% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.91 2.07 59% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.25 2.17 49% Cashed +1.25 Cashed
Home Win 1.65 1.70 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.80 1.73 43% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.83 1.70 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 3.72 4.20 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.21 4.88 25% Cashed +4.21 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.35 1.40 79% Cashed +0.35 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.18 1.18 75% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.08 2.77 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.00 3.95 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.60 3.56 25% Cashed +2.60 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.26 1.22 65% Cashed +0.26 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.26 1.25 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L +2.38u +16% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
FIO – FRO @ 2.00
+14.7%
Edge
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