This encounter features Piast Gliwice hosting Nieciecza in a clash where the visitors show a stronger overall profile despite recent struggles. Piast's home form is subdued with multiple draws and a loss, while Nieciecza's away form is weaker but they have a better recent points rate overall. The home side's defense is more solid, but their attack is limited, suggesting a cautious game with few clear chances. The model leans slightly towards a home win given the venue edge and defensive solidity, but the draw remains a realistic outcome. Goals are expected to be scarce, favoring under 2.5 goals and a no BTTS scenario. Asian Handicap on the home side and double chance 1X offer reasonable value angles.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
PIA 4-4-1-1 · TER 3-4-3📊 Statistics
PIA 4 – 2 TER48%
Possession (%)
52%
2.20
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
3.17
20
Total Shots
22
7
Shots on Target
7
6
Shots off Target
8
13
Shots Inside Box
16
2
Corner Kicks
7
1
Offsides
2
7
Fouls
15
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
1
Yellow Cards
3
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
⏱ Match events
21 · 4 – 29'
⚽
Damian Hilbrycht
Assist · Morgan Fassbender · 0–1
20'
⚽
Andrzej Trubeha
Assist · Krzysztof Kubica · 0–2
Igor Drapiński
Yellow Card
29'
32'
▮
Andrzej Trubeha
Yellow Card
Adrian Dalmau
1–2
40'
Half-time · 1 – 2
Erik Jirka ↓ · Quentin Boisgard ↑
Substitution 1
46'
46'
⇄
Jesús Jiménez ↓ · Kamil Zapolnik ↑
Substitution 1
50'
▮
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Yellow Card
Leandro Sanca
Assist · Jorge Félix · 2–2
51'
Juande Rivas
Assist · Leandro Sanca · 3–2
60'
60'
⇄
Rafał Kurzawa ↓ · Morgan Fassbender ↑
Substitution 2
60'
⇄
Sergio Guerrero ↓ · Andrzej Trubeha ↑
Substitution 3
Adrian Dalmau
Red Card
70'
German Barkovskiy ↓ · Jason Lokilo ↑
Substitution 2
75'
Levis Pitan ↓ · Leandro Sanca ↑
Substitution 3
75'
Oskar Lesniak ↓ · Grzegorz Tomasiewicz ↑
Substitution 4
81'
83'
⇄
Wojciech Jakubik ↓ · Radu Boboc ↑
Substitution 4
83'
⇄
Igor Strzałek ↓ · Damian Hilbrycht ↑
Substitution 5
Michał Chrapek ↓ · Jorge Félix ↑
Substitution 5
85'
88'
▮
Jesús Jiménez
Yellow Card
Erik Jirka
Assist · Patryk Dziczek · 4–2
90+6'
Full-time · 4 – 2
Match recap
Piast Gliwice beat Nieciecza 4–2 at home. At half-time it was 1–2.
On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.17 to 2.20. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 2.20 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: Damian Hilbrycht (9'), Andrzej Trubeha (20'), Adrian Dalmau (40'), Leandro Sanca (51'), Juande Rivas (60'), Erik Jirka (90+6'). Adrian Dalmau was sent off in the 70' minute.
Model audit for this match: of 9 graded markets, 4 landed and 5 missed, for a net -2.96 units (Brier 0.158).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
9 · 4 W · 5 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 1.95 | — | 60% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 2.5 | 1.88 | — | 65% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.24 | — | 80% | Cashed | +0.24 | Cashed |
| AH Home 0 | 1.34 | — | 70% | Cashed | +0.34 | Cashed |
| Home Team Total Under 0.5 | 4.40 | — | 25% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.55 | — | 65% | Cashed | +0.55 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 1.91 | — | 54% | Cashed | +0.91 | Cashed |
| Draw | 3.62 | — | 27% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 4.45 | — | 20% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Total · 9 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 4 W · 5 L | −2.96u | −33% ROI |