Korona Kielce arrives with solid home form and a strong defensive setup, making them tough to break down at EXBUD Arena. Lechia Gdansk, despite showing attacking potential, struggles defensively on the road, which may limit their scoring chances. The home side’s recent consistency and better points per game suggest a clear edge, though Lechia’s ability to find the net keeps the door open for goals from both sides. The model favors a home win with moderate goal scoring, highlighting value in backing Korona to win and the match to produce goals, but with a controlled tempo likely keeping totals around two to three goals.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
KOR 5-4-1 · LEC 4-4-2Subs used · LEC
81'
Olsson ↑
·
Kurminowski ↓
Olsson ↑
·
Kurminowski ↓
90'
Sezonienko ↑
·
Mena ↓
Sezonienko ↑
·
Mena ↓
90'
Szczepankiewicz ↑
·
Neugebauer ↓
Szczepankiewicz ↑
·
Neugebauer ↓
📊 Statistics
KOR 3 – 0 LEC43%
Possession (%)
57%
1.65
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
1.10
15
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Target
3
3
Shots off Target
7
12
Shots Inside Box
6
6
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
0
12
Fouls
11
72%
Pass Accuracy (%)
78%
2
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4
⏱ Match events
15 · 3 – 0Wiktor Długosz
Assist · Marcel Pięczek · 1–0
16'
44'
▮
Camilo Mena
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
Aleksandar Ćirković ↓ · Bogdan Viunnyk ↑
Substitution 1
Wiktor Długosz
Assist · Dawid Błanik · 2–0
51'
64'
⇄
Mohamed Awadalla ↓ · Tomáš Bobček ↑
Substitution 2
Pau Resta
Yellow Card
71'
Konrad Matuszewski ↓ · Marcel Pięczek ↑
Substitution 1
76'
Nono ↓ · Dawid Błanik ↑
Substitution 2
76'
Nono
Yellow Card
77'
79'
▮
Miłosz Kałahur
Red Card
81'
⇄
Elias Olsson ↓ · Dawid Kurminowski ↑
Substitution 3
Martin Remacle
3–0
86'
Stjepan Davidović ↓ · Wiktor Długosz ↑
Substitution 3
86'
90'
⇄
Kacper Sezonienko ↓ · Camilo Mena ↑
Substitution 4
90'
⇄
Bartosz Szczepankiewicz ↓ · Tomasz Neugebauer ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 3 – 0
Match recap
Korona Kielce beat Lechia Gdansk 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.65 to 1.10. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 10, 6 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: Wiktor Długosz (16'), Wiktor Długosz (51'), Martin Remacle (86'). Miłosz Kałahur was sent off in the 79' minute.
Model audit for this match: of 10 graded markets, 5 landed and 5 missed, for a net -1.97 units (Brier 0.184).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
10 · 5 W · 5 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 1.60 | — | 62% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 2.5 | 1.65 | — | 45% | Cashed | +0.65 | Cashed |
| Under 2.5 | 2.31 | — | 55% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.28 | — | 79% | Cashed | +0.28 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 1.98 | — | 43% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home 0 | 1.40 | — | 60% | Cashed | +0.40 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 1.85 | — | 57% | Cashed | +0.85 | Cashed |
| Draw | 4.00 | — | 22% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 4.00 | — | 21% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home -0.5 | 1.85 | — | 57% | Cashed | +0.85 | Cashed |
| Total · 10 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 5 W · 5 L | −1.97u | −20% ROI |