SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 3:1

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.83 — +15.0% better than the market.

Hoffenheim enters this clash with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they can control the game despite playing away. Paderborn's defensive struggles and Hoffenheim's sharper attack create a tactical mismatch favoring the visitors. The home side's limited home momentum and Hoffenheim's ability to exploit defensive gaps hint at a likely away advantage.

Hoffenheim's pressing and compact block may stifle Paderborn's offense
Home side's defensive frailty could be exposed
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

Expect Hoffenheim to leverage their form and quality to dictate play, with Paderborn under pressure to resist early on.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.83 ✗ Lost

AI 63% Implied 55% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

PAD 3-5-2 · HOF 4-4-2

PAD · 3-5-2 4-4-2 · HOF

30 Marino ⚽

Subs used · PAD

45'

Tigges ↑ ·

Pieringer ↓

63'

Sticker ↑ ·

Obermair ↓

73'

Baack ↑ ·

Vidović ↓

73'

Philippe ↑ ·

Marino ↓

75'

Götze ↑ ·

Hansen ↓

Subs used · HOF

45'

Hajdari ↑ ·

Rots ↓

62'

Wimmer ↑ ·

Hložek ↓

62'

Lemperle ↑ ·

Moerstedt ↓

80'

Kramarić ↑ ·

Daghim ↓

80'

Asllani ↑ ·

Avdullahu ↓

Statistics

PAD 3 – 1 HOF

34%

Possession (%)

66%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

15 · 3 – 1

Santiago Castaneda

1–0

⚽

29'

Stefano Marino

Assist · Laurin Curda · 2–0

⚽

42'

45'

▮

Wouter Burger

Yellow Card

45'

⇄

Albian Hajdari ↓ · Mats Rots ↑

Substitution 1

Steffen Tigges ↓ · Marvin Pieringer ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

45'

Half-time · 2 – 0

50'

⚽

Adam Daghim

Assist · Max Moerstedt · 2–1

62'

⇄

Patrick Wimmer ↓ · Adam Hložek ↑

Substitution 2

62'

⇄

Tim Lemperle ↓ · Max Moerstedt ↑

Substitution 3

Jonah Sticker ↓ · Raphael Obermair ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

63'

Steffen Tigges

Assist · Jonah Sticker · 3–1

⚽

69'

Tom Baack ↓ · Gabriel Vidović ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

73'

Rayan Philippe ↓ · Stefano Marino ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

73'

Felix Götze ↓ · Mattes Hansen ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

75'

80'

⇄

Andrej Kramarić ↓ · Adam Daghim ↑

Substitution 4

80'

⇄

Fisnik Asllani ↓ · Leon Avdullahu ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 3 – 1

Match recap

SC Paderborn 07 beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 66% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 23 shots to 13, 2 on target.

On the scoresheet: Santiago Castaneda (29'), Stefano Marino (42'), Adam Daghim (50'), Steffen Tigges (69').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.10 units (Brier 0.300).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.68	1.72	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.76	3.00	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.62	2.80	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.83	1.87	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	2.20	2.10	37%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.05	2.00	37%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Under 0.5	20.50	20.83	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.80	6.49	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.19	1.22	84%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.31	1.34	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.44	1.40	55%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Draw	4.35	4.50	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	1.01	90%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.10	1.10	74%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.38	1.36	57%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Home Win	4.48	4.15	16%	Cashed	+3.48	Cashed
AH Home 0	3.23	3.10	16%	Cashed	+2.23	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.10u	−1% ROI

SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 3:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled