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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Borussia Dortmund — SC Paderborn 07

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 3:0: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Home · last 5 W W W W D
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sep · 13:30
3:0
Full-time
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
D L L W L Away · last 5
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 59% · book 1.96 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 2.05 ✓
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 47% · book 1.75 ✗
Total goals
3
3 · 0
Possession
56% – 44%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.05 — +9.2% better than the market.

Borussia Dortmund carry strong home momentum with perfect recent form and a high points-per-game rate, suggesting they will control the tempo. Their offensive edge against Paderborn's defense hints at effective attacking opportunities, while Paderborn's struggles on the road and lower form create a clear quality gap. Expect Dortmund's pressing and set-piece threat to limit Paderborn's chances.

  • Home attacking superiority
  • Superior recent form
  • Likely controlled pace and compact defense

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 2.05 ✓ Cashed
AI 53% Implied 49% +1.05u
+105%
ROI on stake

Lineups

DOR 3-4-2-1 · PAD 3-5-2
DOR · 3-4-2-1 3-5-2 · PAD 1 Kobel 22 Gadou 3 Anton 4 Schlotterbeck 26 Ryerson 25 Veerman 7 Bellingham 24 Svensson 18 Nwaneri 21 Silva ⚽ 9 Guirassy 15 Noll 21 ter Horst 25 Scheller 22 Hansen 17 Curda 28 Ulrich 5 Castañeda 40 Vidović 23 Obermair 30 Marino 18 Pieringer
Subs used · DOR
65' Nmecha ↑ · Veerman ↓
65' Chukwuemeka ↑ · Silva ↓
65' Sabitzer ↑ · Nwaneri ↓
77' Beier ↑ · Ryerson ↓
77' Bensebaini ↑ · Schlotterbeck ↓
Subs used · PAD
67' Lippmann ↑ · Curda ↓
67' Tigges ↑ · Marino ↓
67' Meier ↑ · Vidović ↓
77' Đurić ↑ · Ulrich ↓
82' Philippe ↑ · Hansen ↓

Statistics

DOR 3 – 0 PAD
56%
Possession (%)
44%
14
Total Shots
10
8
Shots on Target
0
3
Shots off Target
8
10
Shots Inside Box
5
7
Corner Kicks
3
3
Offsides
2
11
Fouls
7
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

15 · 3 – 0
Fábio Silva
Assist · Serhou Guirassy · 1–0
⚽
5'
39'
▮
Laurin Ulrich
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
Felix Nmecha ↓ · Joey Veerman ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
65'
Carney Chukwuemeka ↓ · Fábio Silva ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
65'
Marcel Sabitzer ↓ · Ethan Nwaneri ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
65'
Jobe Bellingham
Yellow Card
▮
66'
67'
⇄
Clemens Lippmann ↓ · Laurin Curda ↑
Substitution 1
67'
⇄
Steffen Tigges ↓ · Stefano Marino ↑
Substitution 2
67'
⇄
Oliver Batista Meier ↓ · Gabriel Vidović ↑
Substitution 3
Maximilian Beier ↓ · Julian Ryerson ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
77'
77'
⇄
Luka Đurić ↓ · Laurin Ulrich ↑
Substitution 4
Ramy Bensebaini ↓ · Nico Schlotterbeck ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
77'
Felix Nmecha
Assist · Maximilian Beier · 2–0
⚽
80'
82'
⇄
Rayan Philippe ↓ · Mattes Hansen ↑
Substitution 5
Felix Nmecha
Assist · Marcel Sabitzer · 3–0
⚽
89'
Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

Borussia Dortmund beat SC Paderborn 07 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 10, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

On the scoresheet: Fábio Silva (5'), Felix Nmecha (80'), Felix Nmecha (89').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -5.21 units (Brier 0.105).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.96 1.91 59% Cashed +0.96 Cashed
BTTS No 2.05 2.04 53% Cashed +1.05 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.75 1.72 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 1.92 1.91 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 3.17 3.25 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 6.85 6.99 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 10.00 10.53 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 4.00 4.00 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 6.00 6.99 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.06 1.05 86% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Home Win 1.25 1.22 68% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.06 1.05 68% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
AH Away 0 6.25 6.45 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.08 1.07 77% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.33 1.33 60% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −5.21u −35% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS No
DOR – PAD @ 2.05
+9.2%
Edge
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