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Home › England › Premier League › Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest

Predictions by Market: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 L D L W D
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sep · 14:00
1:2
Full-time
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
L D D W L Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · AST
42%
Best 2.23
Draw
26%
Best 3.45
Away Win · NOT
32%
Best 3.30
Value pick
Under 0.5
@ 10.50
Fair odds
9.18
book 10.50 · +14.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 11% · EV +14.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 0.5 is more likely (89%), but Under 0.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 42.3%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 31.7%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 26.1%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.93
Show model details
Implied probability 51.8%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 41.4%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 33.5%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 10.9%
Odds 10.50
Show model details
Implied probability 9.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 78.5%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89.1%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 66.5%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 21.5%
Odds 3.32
Show model details
Implied probability 30.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Value pick
Probability 56.1%
Odds 2.02
Show model details
Implied probability 49.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 43.9%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 31.7%
Odds 2.56
Show model details
Implied probability 39.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 42.3%
Odds 1.54
Show model details
Implied probability 64.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 61%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 68.4%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
AST – NOT @ 10.50
+14.3%
Edge
Forecast →