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Home › England › Premier League › Leeds — Brentford

Leeds vs Brentford 1:1: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Leeds
Leeds
Home · last 5 D D W D L
Kick-off
Sun 30 Aug · 13:00
1:1
Full-time
Brentford
Brentford
D D D W D Away · last 5
Referee Tony Harrington, England
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 62% · book 1.91 ✗
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 36% · book 2.69 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 45% · book 2.11 ✗
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.46 – 1.56
Δ −0.10
Possession
47% – 53%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 1.5 at 1.25 — +5.3% better than the market.

Leeds and Brentford both come off wins, suggesting positive momentum on either side. The head-to-head history shows tight, low-scoring encounters, hinting at a compact tactical battle. With balanced form and no clear quality gap, expect a cautious start with potential for a few well-crafted chances.

  • Home side’s pressing edge may test Brentford’s build-up.
  • Brentford’s resilience could limit Leeds’ attacking flow.
  • Odds suggest a moderate tempo with a slight lean towards goals over 2.5.

Overall, this could be a tight Premier League clash where tactical discipline and set-piece moments might decide the outcome.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 1.5
Over 1.5 @ 1.25 ✓ Cashed
AI 84% Implied 80% +0.25u
+25%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LEE 3-4-2-1 · BRE 4-2-3-1
Subs used · LEE
34' Elvedi ↑ · Rodon ↓
46' Tanaka ↑ · Bijol ↓
46' Wilson ↑ · Aaronson ↓
68' James ↑ · Bogle ↓
69' Nmecha ↑ · Okafor ↓
Subs used · BRE
61' Ouattara ↑ · Anthony ↓
69' Yarmolyuk ↑ · Damsgaard ↓
88' Henry ↑ · Lewis-Potter ↓
88' Wilson ↑ · Kayode ↓
88' Hickey ↑ · Schade ↓

Statistics

LEE 1 – 1 BRE
47%
Possession (%)
53%
1.46
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.56
13
Total Shots
22
2
Shots on Target
5
5
Shots off Target
6
6
Shots Inside Box
18
5
Corner Kicks
6
2
Offsides
0
5
Fouls
13
76%
Pass Accuracy (%)
78%
0
Yellow Cards
4
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

16 · 1 – 1
30'
▮
J. Anthony
Yellow Card
N. Elvedi ↓ · J. Rodon ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
34'
41'
⚽
K. Schade
Assist · K. Lewis-Potter · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
A. Tanaka ↓ · J. Bijol ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
H. Wilson ↓ · B. Aaronson ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
46'
61'
⇄
D. Ouattara ↓ · J. Anthony ↑
Substitution 1
D. James ↓ · J. Bogle ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
68'
L. Nmecha ↓ · N. Okafor ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
69'
69'
⇄
Y. Yarmolyuk ↓ · M. Damsgaard ↑
Substitution 2
74'
▮
K. Ajer
Yellow Card
76'
▮
V. Janelt
Yellow Card
D. Calvert-Lewin
Assist · L. Nmecha · 1–1
⚽
79'
88'
⇄
R. Henry ↓ · K. Lewis-Potter ↑
Substitution 3
88'
⇄
C. Wilson ↓ · M. Kayode ↑
Substitution 4
88'
⇄
A. Hickey ↓ · K. Schade ↑
Substitution 5
90+3'
▮
N. Collins
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Leeds and Brentford drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 13, 5 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: K. Schade (41'), D. Calvert-Lewin (79').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -2.53 units (Brier 0.196).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.91 1.91 62% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.69 2.72 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.11 2.11 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.53 2.60 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.68 1.66 55% Cashed +0.68 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.01 1.98 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.91 1.95 38% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.89 1.92 37% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.20 3.10 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.52 1.50 63% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.44 1.44 64% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.25 1.25 84% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Draw 3.35 3.34 27% Cashed +2.35 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.32 1.33 57% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.60 3.70 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −2.53u −17% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 1.5
LEE – BRE @ 1.25
+5.3%
Edge
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