Match Mexico vs Ecuador July 1, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Mexico and Ecuador face off on neutral ground with limited data on Mexico's recent form, while Ecuador arrives unbeaten in their last five qualifiers, showing strong defensive discipline and a low goals-against rate. Ecuador's compact block and high clean sheet percentage suggest a tough challenge for Mexico's attack.

Ecuador's solid defensive shape limits scoring chances.
Mexico's home momentum is unclear, adding uncertainty.
Expect a cautious tempo with under 2.5 goals likely.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

MEX 4-3-3 · ECU 4-4-2

MEX · 4-3-3 4-4-2 · ECU

16 Quiñones ⚽

Subs used · MEX

58'

Gutierrez ↑ ·

Mora ↓

73'

Vargas ↑ ·

Romo ↓

74'

Gimenez ↑ ·

Jimenez ↓

80'

Pineda ↑ ·

Quinones ↓

80'

Reyes ↑ ·

Alvarado ↓

Subs used · ECU

46'

Medina ↑ ·

Franco ↓

46'

Preciado ↑ ·

Ordonez ↓

59'

Rodriguez ↑ ·

Valencia ↓

79'

Caicedo ↑ ·

Yeboah ↓

79'

Paez ↑ ·

Angulo ↓

📊 Statistics

MEX 2 – 0 ECU

43%

Possession (%)

57%

1.02

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.73

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

78%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 2 – 0

J. Quinones

Assist · R. Alvarado · 1–0

⚽

22'

R. Jimenez

Assist · J. Quinones · 2–0

⚽

31'

45+1'

▮

A. Franco

Yellow Card

Half-time · 2 – 0

46'

⇄

Y. Medina ↓ · A. Franco ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

A. Preciado ↓ · J. Ordonez ↑

Substitution 2

B. Gutierrez ↓ · G. Mora ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

58'

59'

⇄

K. Rodriguez ↓ · E. Valencia ↑

Substitution 3

O. Vargas ↓ · L. Romo ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

S. Gimenez ↓ · R. Jimenez ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

79'

⇄

J. Caicedo ↓ · J. Yeboah ↑

Substitution 4

79'

⇄

K. Paez ↓ · N. Angulo ↑

Substitution 5

O. Pineda ↓ · J. Quinones ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

80'

I. Reyes ↓ · R. Alvarado ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

80'

90+3'

▮

K. Paez

Yellow Card

90+5'

▮

P. Hincapie

Red Card

90+9'

▮

M. Caicedo

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Mexico beat Ecuador 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 57% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 7, 3 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Quinones (22'), R. Jimenez (31'). P. Hincapie was sent off in the 90+5' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.20 units (Brier 0.127).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.18	2.17	45%	Cashed	+1.18	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.75	3.00	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.65	1.58	59%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.42	2.30	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.67	1.67	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.15	2.25	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.63	2.75	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.57	1.62	62%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.25	1.23	75%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.44	1.40	65%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Draw	3.00	2.85	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.50	1.46	45%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Away Win	3.90	4.15	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.13	1.11	83%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
Over 3.5	5.50	5.99	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	1.11	86%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Under 0.5	6.00	5.49	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.20u	−31% ROI