🧠 Model verdict
Model leans toward Under 2.5 goals — 65% probability.
Also rated highly: both teams not to score 59%.
Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.
AI preview · 90 sec read
Mexico and Ecuador face off on neutral ground with limited data on Mexico's recent form, while Ecuador arrives unbeaten in their last five qualifiers, showing strong defensive discipline and a low goals-against rate. Ecuador's compact block and high clean sheet percentage suggest a tough challenge for Mexico's attack.
- Ecuador's solid defensive shape limits scoring chances.
- Mexico's home momentum is unclear, adding uncertainty.
- Expect a cautious tempo with under 2.5 goals likely.
✓ Most likely outcomes
What the model rates as most likely in each market.
| Market | Prob. % | Pred. |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 45% | Mexico win |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 65% | Under 2.5 |
| BTTS | 59% | No |
| Double Chance | 75% | 1X |
- 1X2 Mexico win 45%
- Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 65%
- BTTS No 59%
- Double Chance 1X 75%
📈 Odds movement · 1X2
72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
≡ Recent form
Last 5 matches · all competitions
Mexico
W/D/L
5-0-0
Goals (for / against)
12 / 1
Avg goals / match
2.6
Scored in
5/5
Clean sheets
4/5
Both teams scored
1/5
Over 2.5
2/5
Home (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Away (W-D-L)
1-0-0
xG (for / against)
1.23 / 0.41
Ecuador
W/D/L
3-1-1
Goals (for / against)
7 / 2
Avg goals / match
1.8
Scored in
3/5
Clean sheets
3/5
Both teams scored
1/5
Over 2.5
2/5
Home (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Away (W-D-L)
0-0-1
xG (for / against)
1.80 / 0.61
⚔ Head-to-Head Performance
last 10 H2H · per matchEff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.
🌍 Qualification form
Statistics based on recent World Cup qualification matches.Qualification statistics are not available for this team. This may happen for host nations or teams without imported qualification data.
W
D
D
D
D
Matches18
Goals for / against14 / 5
Goals for / match0.78
Goals against / match0.28
Clean sheets72.2%
Both teams to score16.7%
Over 1.5 goals22.2%
Over 2.5 goals22.2%
Avg corners3.9
Avg shots10.6
Avg shots on target3.9
Sources: CONMEBOL World Cup Qualification
📡 Team strength
0–100 rating vs league · season-to-dateEach axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.
🎯 Scenario insights
①
Mexico wins when scoring first
100%
①
Ecuador wins when scoring first
—
⚽
Mexico BTTS rate · last 10
20%
⚽
Ecuador BTTS rate · last 10
30%
↑
Mexico Over 2.5 · last 10
30%
↑
Ecuador Over 2.5 · last 10
20%
↩
Mexico comeback rate · last 10
—
↩
Ecuador comeback rate · last 10
—
🔥 Goal timing
Mexico · last 2 at home
0–15
33%
16–30
0%
31–45
0%
46–60
33%
61–75
33%
76–90
0%
Ecuador · last 1 away
0–15
0%
16–30
0%
31–45
0%
46–60
0%
61–75
0%
76–90
0%
Second-half-heavy — most goals come after the break.
