Match South Africa vs Canada June 28, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 2.20 — +10.3% better than the market.

South Africa arrives with solid home momentum, boasting a strong defensive record and a reliable attack that averages over 1.5 goals per match in qualifiers. Their compact block and set-piece threat could challenge Canada, whose form and stats remain uncertain, adding a layer of unpredictability. The neutral venue levels the playing field, but South Africa's recent consistency and pressing edge suggest they hold a slight tactical advantage.

South Africa's disciplined defense and efficient attack
Canada's unknown form adds uncertainty
Neutral ground favors tactical adaptability

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 2.20 ✗ Lost

AI 50% Implied 45% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

RSA 4-2-3-1 · CAN 4-4-2

RSA · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · CAN

17 Makgopa

Subs used · RSA

46'

Mbatha ↑ ·

Mofokeng ↓

86'

Rayners ↑ ·

Makgopa ↓

86'

Moremi ↑ ·

Maseko ↓

Subs used · CAN

59'

Sigur ↑ ·

Saliba ↓

59'

De Fougerolles ↑ ·

Bombito ↓

70'

David ↑ ·

Oluwaseyi ↓

70'

Shaffelburg ↑ ·

Millar ↓

75'

Davies ↑ ·

Buchanan ↓

📊 Statistics

RSA 0 – 1 CAN

58%

Possession (%)

42%

0.13

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.32

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

11 · 0 – 1

Half-time · 0 – 0

T. Mbatha ↓ · R. Mofokeng ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

54'

▮

N. Saliba

Yellow Card

59'

⇄

N. Sigur ↓ · N. Saliba ↑

Substitution 1

59'

⇄

L. De Fougerolles ↓ · M. Bombito ↑

Substitution 2

67'

▮

N. Sigur

Yellow Card

70'

⇄

P. David ↓ · T. Oluwaseyi ↑

Substitution 3

70'

⇄

J. Shaffelburg ↓ · L. Millar ↑

Substitution 4

75'

⇄

A. Davies ↓ · T. Buchanan ↑

Substitution 5

I. Rayners ↓ · E. Makgopa ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

86'

T. Moremi ↓ · T. Maseko ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

86'

90+2'

⚽

S. Eustaquio

0–1

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Canada won 1–0 away at South Africa. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.32 to 0.13. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 6, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 4 to 1. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

On the scoresheet: S. Eustaquio (90+2').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.44 units (Brier 0.194).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.20	2.15	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	2.13	2.23	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.05	2.04	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.72	1.74	51%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.67	1.73	50%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Away Win	1.70	1.66	49%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.80	2.96	27%	Cashed	+1.80	Cashed
Home Win	5.38	5.75	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.00	3.75	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.40	1.36	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.16	1.15	74%	Cashed	+0.16	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	1.04	91%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
AH Home 0	3.73	4.08	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.60	3.70	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.22	1.24	71%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.00	9.01	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.24	1.22	49%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.44u	−26% ROI