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Home › England › Premier League › Manchester City — Leeds

Predictions by Market: Manchester City vs Leeds

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 D W W D L
Kick-off
Sat 29 Nov · 15:00
3:2
Full-time
Leeds
Leeds
D W D W L Away · last 5
Etihad Stadium · Manchester Referee Peter Bankes, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MCI
78%
Best 1.25
Draw
16%
Best 6.29
Away Win · LEE
6%
Best 11.28
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.77
Fair odds
6.29
book 6.77 · +7.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 16% · EV +7.6%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (78%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Draw
Probability 15.9%
Odds 6.77
Show model details
Implied probability 14.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 78.4%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Away Win
Probability 5.7%
Odds 12.90
Show model details
Implied probability 7.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 63%
Odds 1.66
Show model details
Implied probability 60.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 41%
Odds 2.56
Show model details
Implied probability 39.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 37%
Odds 2.43
Show model details
Implied probability 41.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 59.1%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 19.4%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 5.3%
Odds 19.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.7%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 80.7%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 46.4%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.6%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 78.4%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 5.7%
Odds 6.85
Show model details
Implied probability 14.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 94.3%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 21.6%
Odds 4.25
Show model details
Implied probability 23.5%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
MCI – LEE @ 6.77
+7.6%
Edge
Forecast →