Match Senegal vs Iraq June 26, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.91 — +13.8% better than the market.

Senegal vs Iraq Preview

Senegal arrives with strong home momentum, boasting a perfect recent run and a sturdy defense that keeps clean sheets in 80% of qualification matches. Iraq shows resilience with solid form and decent attacking output but concedes more often. Expect a tactical battle where Senegal's compact block and set-piece threat could dominate, while Iraq may struggle to break through. The pace hints at a controlled tempo, favoring a low-scoring encounter with limited goal chances.

Senegal's defensive solidity and home edge
Iraq's decent but less consistent attack
Likely cautious tempo with few goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.91

AI 60% Implied 52% Value

+13.8%

Expected value

⛀ Lineups

SEN 4-2-3-1 · IRQ 4-1-4-1

SEN · 4-2-3-1 4-1-4-1 · IRQ

18 Sarr ⚽

Subs used · SEN

57'

Gueye ↑ ·

Diarra ↓

57'

Ndiaye ↑ ·

Mbaye ↓

57'

Jackson ↑ ·

Camara ↓

58'

Ciss ↑ ·

Seck ↓

81'

Diao ↑ ·

Sarr ↓

Subs used · IRQ

16'

Younis ↑ ·

Qasem ↓

46'

Hassan ↑ ·

Basil ↓

58' Al Reeshawee ↑ ·

Jasim ↓

58'

Yousif ↑ ·

Al Hamadi ↓

67'

Yakob ↑ ·

Iqbal ↓

📊 Statistics

SEN 5 – 0 IRQ

69%

Possession (%)

31%

3.02

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.18

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

70%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

20 · 5 – 0

H. Diarra

Assist · A. Seck · 1–0

⚽

13'

▮

R. Sulaka

Red Card

16'

⇄

M. Younis ↓ · A. Qasem ↑

Substitution 1

A. Seck

Yellow Card

▮

18'

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

J. Hassan ↓ · A. Basil ↑

Substitution 2

I. Sarr

Assist · L. Camara · 2–0

⚽

56'

P. Gueye ↓ · H. Diarra ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

57'

I. Ndiaye ↓ · I. Mbaye ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

57'

N. Jackson ↓ · L. Camara ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

57'

58'

⇄

A. Al Reeshawee ↓ · A. Jasim ↑

Substitution 3

58'

⇄

A. Yousif ↓ · A. Al Hamadi ↑

Substitution 4

P. Ciss ↓ · A. Seck ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

58'

P. Gueye

Assist · I. Sarr · 3–0

⚽

59'

67'

⇄

K. Yakob ↓ · Z. Iqbal ↑

Substitution 5

P. Gueye

Assist · I. Ndiaye · 4–0

⚽

71'

75'

▮

A. Al Ammari

Yellow Card

A. Diao ↓ · I. Sarr ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

P. Gueye

Yellow Card

▮

81'

I. Ndiaye

Assist · P. Gueye · 5–0

⚽

82'

90'

▮

M. Doski

Yellow Card

Full-time · 5 – 0

Match recap

Senegal beat Iraq 5–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 69% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.02 to 0.18. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 27 shots to 6, 11 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 12 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 5 from 3.02 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: H. Diarra (4'), I. Sarr (56'), P. Gueye (59'), P. Gueye (71'), I. Ndiaye (82'). R. Sulaka was sent off in the 13' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.83 units (Brier 0.140).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.40	2.62	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.57	1.48	50%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.10	2.10	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.69	1.70	65%	Cashed	+0.69	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.00	16.95	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	10.50	12.50	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.00	5.49	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	4.35	4.33	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	7.30	8.47	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.57	1.66	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.05	1.04	83%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Home Win	1.21	1.21	69%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.08	1.08	64%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Draw	6.99	6.99	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.40	2.25	30%	Cashed	+1.40	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.03	1.02	81%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.14	1.11	71%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.83u	−34% ROI