Match Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands June 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.66 — +13.0% better than the market.

Uruguay faces a tricky test against Cape Verde Islands in a neutral World Cup setting. Uruguay's solid defensive record and home momentum in qualification contrast with Cape Verde's impressive recent form and higher scoring rate. Expect a tactical battle with both sides cautious, leaning towards a tight, low-scoring game.

Uruguay's compact defense and clean sheet tendency
Cape Verde's attacking edge and strong away form
Neutral venue likely to temper pace and goal volume

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.66 ✗ Lost

AI 68% Implied 60% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

URU 4-2-3-1 · CPV 4-1-4-1

URU · 4-2-3-1 4-1-4-1 · CPV

21 Viñas

Subs used · URU

70'

de la Cruz ↑ ·

Ugarte ↓

70'

Nunez ↑ ·

Vinas ↓

81'

Rodriguez ↑ ·

Araujo ↓

Subs used · CPV

46'

Duarte ↑ ·

Arcanjo ↓

58'

Da Costa ↑ ·

Benchimol ↓

58'

Varela ↑ ·

Rodrigues ↓

71'

Duarte ↑ ·

Lenini ↓

80'

Semedo ↑ ·

Monteiro ↓

📊 Statistics

URU 2 – 2 CPV

66%

Possession (%)

34%

2.28

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.77

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

74%

Yellow Cards

⏱ Match events

16 · 2 – 2

▮

S. Lopes Cabral

Yellow Card

R. Bentancur

Yellow Card

▮

20'

21'

⚽

K. Lenini

0–1

M. Araujo

1–1

⚽

44'

Half-time · 1 – 1

46'

⇄

D. Duarte ↓ · T. Arcanjo ↑

Substitution 1

A. Canobbio

Assist · M. Araujo · 2–1

⚽

45+6'

M. Olivera

Yellow Card

▮

58'

⇄

N. Da Costa ↓ · Benchimol ↑

Substitution 2

58'

⇄

H. Varela ↓ · G. Rodrigues ↑

Substitution 3

61'

⚽

H. Varela

2–2

N. de la Cruz ↓ · M. Ugarte ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

70'

D. Nunez ↓ · F. Vinas ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

70'

71'

⇄

L. Duarte ↓ · K. Lenini ↑

Substitution 4

80'

⇄

Y. Semedo ↓ · J. Monteiro ↑

Substitution 5

B. Rodriguez ↓ · M. Araujo ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

81'

90+3'

▮

D. Borges

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 2

Match recap

Uruguay and Cape Verde Islands drew 2–2. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 83% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.28 to 0.77. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 7, 2 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: K. Lenini (21'), M. Araujo (44'), A. Canobbio (45+6'), H. Varela (61').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +1.92 units (Brier 0.330).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.66	1.62	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.80	3.00	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.62	2.80	43%	Cashed	+1.62	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.30	2.28	32%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.32	2.54	30%	Cashed	+1.32	Cashed
BTTS No	1.45	1.45	74%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.50	8.00	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	7.35	9.01	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	5.40	6.49	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.20	1.21	87%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.09	1.06	80%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Home Win	1.49	1.41	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.05	4.27	23%	Cashed	+3.05	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	1.05	79%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.39	1.40	57%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.14	1.10	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.10	4.20	13%	Cashed	+3.10	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+1.92u	+11% ROI