Match Tunisia vs Japan June 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.75 — +13.0% better than the market.

Tunisia arrives with perfect form and a rock-solid defense, having kept clean sheets in all recent qualifiers. Their home momentum and defensive discipline could frustrate Japan, who boast a potent attack but have shown occasional defensive lapses. Expect a tactical battle where Tunisia’s compact block meets Japan’s pressing edge.

Tunisia’s defensive resilience is key.
Japan’s attacking firepower demands attention.
Likely a cautious, low-scoring encounter.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.75 ✗ Lost

AI 65% Implied 57% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

TUN 3-4-2-1 · JPN 3-4-2-1

TUN · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · JPN

25 Slimane

Subs used · TUN

46'

Gharbi ↑ ·

Saad ↓

46'

Ben Hamida ↑ ·

Bronn ↓

65'

Chaouat ↑ ·

Tounekti ↓

90+1'

Achouri ↑ ·

Abdi ↓

90+1'

Khedira ↑ ·

Skhiri ↓

Subs used · JPN

73'

Suzuki ↑ ·

Kamada ↓

74'

Sugawara ↑ ·

Doan ↓

79'

Suzuki ↑ ·

Nakamura ↓

79'

Seko ↑ ·

Tomiyasu ↓

84'

Goto ↑ ·

Ueda ↓

📊 Statistics

TUN 0 – 4 JPN

38%

Possession (%)

62%

0.05

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.07

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

90%

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 0 – 4

⚽

D. Kamada

Assist · K. Nakamura · 0–1

31'

⚽

A. Ueda

Assist · K. Itakura · 0–2

Half-time · 0 – 2

I. Gharbi ↓ · E. Saad ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

M. Ben Hamida ↓ · D. Bronn ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

F. Chaouat ↓ · S. Tounekti ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

65'

69'

⚽

J. Ito

Assist · A. Ueda · 0–3

73'

⇄

J. Suzuki ↓ · D. Kamada ↑

Substitution 1

74'

⇄

Y. Sugawara ↓ · R. Doan ↑

Substitution 2

79'

⇄

Y. Suzuki ↓ · K. Nakamura ↑

Substitution 3

79'

⇄

A. Seko ↓ · T. Tomiyasu ↑

Substitution 4

83'

⚽

A. Ueda

Assist · K. Sano · 0–4

84'

⇄

K. Goto ↓ · A. Ueda ↑

Substitution 5

E. Achouri ↓ · A. Abdi ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+1'

R. Khedira ↓ · E. Skhiri ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+1'

Full-time · 0 – 4

Match recap

Japan won 4–0 away at Tunisia. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 62% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.07 to 0.05. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 11 shots to 2, 5 on target. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 2.07 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: D. Kamada (4'), A. Ueda (31'), J. Ito (69'), A. Ueda (83').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.36 units (Brier 0.214).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.75	1.80	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.68	1.66	66%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	2.40	2.70	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.10	2.05	35%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.11	2.15	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.20	3.40	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.00	10.00	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	6.69	7.75	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.25	1.27	85%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.10	1.08	80%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Away Win	1.53	1.44	56%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
AH Home 0	4.85	5.81	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.00	4.35	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	1.03	80%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.31	1.31	61%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.16	1.13	56%	Cashed	+0.16	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.70	3.70	15%	Cashed	+2.70	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.36u	−20% ROI