Match Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis May 21, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.74 — +12.6% better than the market.

Panetolikos hosts Asteras Tripolis in a tight Super League 1 clash where both sides show similar overall strength. Panetolikos enjoys a mild home edge with a compact defensive setup, but Asteras Tripolis holds a slight attacking advantage, suggesting a balanced tactical battle. Recent form favors Asteras slightly, yet the matchup hints at a cautious pace with under 2.5 goals likely, supported by their history of low-scoring encounters.

Home defensive solidity vs away attacking edge
Close quality levels imply tight contest
Recent form and pace favor a controlled game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.74 ✗ Lost

AI 65% Implied 57% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

PAN 4-1-4-1 · AST 4-1-4-1

PAN · 4-1-4-1 4-1-4-1 · AST

25 Badji

📊 Statistics

PAN 1 – 2 AST

62%

Possession (%)

38%

2.23

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.86

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Asteras Tripolis won 2–1 away at Panetolikos. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 62% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 87% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 11, 7 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -1.84 units (Brier 0.260).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.74	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.95	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.40	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.80	—	42%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.10	—	35%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.70	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.08	—	31%	Cashed	+1.08	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.05	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.10	—	31%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.38	—	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.57	—	58%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.22	—	84%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Draw	3.30	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.29	—	60%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.54	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−1.84u	−12% ROI