Livingston vs Kilmarnock 1:4 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.40 — +9.5% better than the market.

Kilmarnock enter this clash with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Livingston's home defensive solidity could keep things tight, but Kilmarnock's sharper attack and momentum hint at a controlled away performance. The matchup likely favors a cautious tempo with limited goal-scoring opportunities, supported by under 2.5 goals odds.

Livingston's defensive resilience at home
Kilmarnock's superior offensive quality and form
Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.40 ✗ Lost

AI 78% Implied 71% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

LIV 4-2-3-1 · KIL 4-3-2-1

LIV · 4-2-3-1 4-3-2-1 · KIL

9 Muirhead

Statistics

LIV 1 – 4 KIL

52%

Possession (%)

48%

0.69

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.08

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

91%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Kilmarnock won 4–1 away at Livingston. At half-time it was 1–2.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.08 to 0.69. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 9, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 1. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 2.08 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.74 units (Brier 0.218).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.10	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.26	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.40	—	49%	Cashed	+1.40	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.75	—	49%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.80	—	44%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.62	—	48%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.07	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.40	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.00	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.40	—	74%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.00	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.57	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.88	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.00	—	22%	Cashed	+2.00	Cashed
Draw	3.50	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	85%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.25	—	66%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.74u	−16% ROI

Livingston vs Kilmarnock 1:4: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Bet recap · markets settled