Match FC Sion vs FC Lugano May 14, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.08 — +11.4% better than the market.

FC Sion arrives with strong home momentum, boasting a perfect recent run and a slight edge in overall quality. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Lugano's less robust backline, suggesting a tactical battle where Sion's compact block could limit away chances. The pace hints at a moderately open game, but the under 2.5 goals market looks appealing given both sides' disciplined defensive profiles.

Home form and defensive strength favor Sion
Lugano's attack faces tough defensive test
Moderate tempo likely keeps scoring in check

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.08 ✗ Lost

AI 54% Implied 48% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SIO 4-2-3-1 · LUG 3-5-2

SIO · 4-2-3-1 3-5-2 · LUG

33 Nivokazi

📊 Statistics

SIO 2 – 2 LUG

49%

Possession (%)

51%

1.12

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.12

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

FC Sion and FC Lugano drew 2–2. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.12 to 1.12. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.98 units (Brier 0.225).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.08	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.23	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.15	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.70	—	52%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.62	—	50%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.73	—	46%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.75	—	26%	Cashed	+1.75	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.38	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.00	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.40	—	74%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.36	—	73%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Under 0.5	13.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.55	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	91%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Draw	3.60	—	25%	Cashed	+2.60	Cashed
Away Win	3.22	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.22	—	71%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.98u	−12% ROI