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Home › England › Premier League › Manchester City — Liverpool

Predictions by Market: Manchester City vs Liverpool

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 D W W D L
Kick-off
Sun 09 Nov · 16:30
3:0
Full-time
Liverpool
Liverpool
W L D L D Away · last 5
Etihad Stadium · Manchester Referee Chris Kavanagh, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MCI
58%
Best 1.91
Draw
23%
Best 3.90
Away Win · LIV
20%
Best 3.70
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.28
Fair odds
2.11
book 2.28 · +8.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 47% · EV +8.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (53%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 57.5%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 22.8%
Odds 4.15
Show model details
Implied probability 24.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 19.8%
Odds 3.73
Show model details
Implied probability 26.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 47.4%
Odds 2.28
Show model details
Implied probability 43.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 52.6%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 31.8%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 68.2%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 85.9%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96.4%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 14.1%
Odds 5.80
Show model details
Implied probability 17.2%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 3.7%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 67.2%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS No
Probability 32.8%
Odds 2.81
Show model details
Implied probability 35.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 57.5%
Odds 1.48
Show model details
Implied probability 67.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 19.8%
Odds 2.84
Show model details
Implied probability 35.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 42.5%
Odds 1.93
Show model details
Implied probability 51.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 80.2%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
MCI – LIV @ 2.28
+8.0%
Edge
Forecast →