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Home › England › Premier League › Aston Villa — Bournemouth

Predictions by Market: Aston Villa vs Bournemouth

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Sun 09 Nov · 14:00
4:0
Full-time
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
D W W D D Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham Referee John Brooks, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · AST
37%
Best 2.29
Draw
26%
Best 3.40
Away Win · BOU
38%
Best 3.15
Value pick
Under 0.5
@ 13.00
Fair odds
11.35
book 13.00 · +14.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 9% · EV +14.6%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 0.5 is more likely (91%), but Under 0.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win
Probability 36.7%
Odds 2.24
Show model details
Implied probability 44.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 37.7%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 25.6%
Odds 3.64
Show model details
Implied probability 27.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 54.2%
Odds 2.06
Show model details
Implied probability 48.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 45.8%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 28.7%
Odds 4.20
Show model details
Implied probability 23.8%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 24.9%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 8.8%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.2%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 71.3%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Value pick
Probability 50.4%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 49.6%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 37.7%
Odds 2.46
Show model details
Implied probability 40.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 36.7%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 63.3%
Odds 1.74
Show model details
Implied probability 57.5%
Bet quality High
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 62.3%
Odds 1.37
Show model details
Implied probability 73%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
AST – BOU @ 13.00
+14.6%
Edge
Forecast →