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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Spain La Liga Elche — Celta Vigo

Match Elche vs Celta Vigo September 28, 2025

Spain   /   La Liga
Elche
Elche
Home · last 5 L D L W D
Kick-off
Sun 28 Sep · 14:15
2:1
Full-time
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
W W L D W Away · last 5
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero · Elche Referee Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 69% · book 1.53
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 65% · book 1.74
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 58% · book 1.95
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
3.33 – 0.77
Δ +2.56
Possession
62% – 38%
AI accuracy
4 / 9
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

This matchup features Elche with a clear home advantage and stronger recent form compared to Celta Vigo, who have struggled to find wins and show a more cautious away approach. Elche’s defensive solidity at home and better points per game suggest they will control the tempo and limit chances. The game is likely to be moderately paced with a modest goal count, favoring a home win or a draw. The market offers value in backing Elche to avoid defeat and in the under 2.5 goals, reflecting the expected tightness and defensive discipline.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

ELC 5-3-2 · CEL 4-3-3
Subs used · ELC
64' Rodriguez ↑ · Silva
73' Petrot ↑ · Pedrosa
73' Chust ↑ · Bigas
81' Aguado ↑ · Josan
81' Diangana ↑ · Mir
Subs used · CEL
46' Rodriguez ↑ · Moriba
46' Rueda ↑ · Mingueza
67' Swedberg ↑ · Zaragoza
73' Aspas ↑ · Lago
82' Fernandez ↑ · Alonso

📊 Statistics

ELC 21 CEL
62%
Possession (%)
38%
3.33
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.77
17
Total Shots
8
8
Shots on Target
2
4
Shots off Target
3
15
Shots Inside Box
7
7
Corner Kicks
2
3
Offsides
3
12
Fouls
20
91%
Pass Accuracy (%)
83%
3
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
6

Match events

19 · 2 – 1
17'
Óscar Mingueza
Yellow Card
Andre Silva
Assist · Josan · 1–0
18'
22'
B. Iglesias
Assist · I. Moriba · 1–1
Half-time · 1 – 1
46'
J. Rodriguez ↓ · I. Moriba ↑
Substitution 1
46'
J. Rueda ↓ · O. Mingueza ↑
Substitution 2
57'
Yoel Lago
Yellow Card
Josan
Yellow Card
64'
A. Rodriguez ↓ · Andre Silva ↑
Substitution 1
64'
67'
W. Swedberg ↓ · B. Zaragoza ↑
Substitution 3
J. Donald
2–1
68'
David Affengruber
Yellow Card
70'
Adrià Pedrosa
Yellow Card
72'
L. Petrot ↓ · A. Pedrosa ↑
Substitution 2
73'
V. Chust ↓ · P. Bigas ↑
Substitution 3
73'
73'
I. Aspas ↓ · Y. Lago ↑
Substitution 4
M. Aguado ↓ · Josan ↑
Substitution 4
81'
G. Diangana ↓ · R. Mir ↑
Substitution 5
81'
82'
M. Fernandez ↓ · M. Alonso ↑
Substitution 5
85'
Miguel Román
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

9 · 4 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance 1X 1.53 69% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.74 65% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.95 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.05 50% Cashed +1.05 Cashed
Home Team Total Over 0.5 1.39 75% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
Away Team Total Under 0.5 3.30 35% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.89 41% Cashed +1.89 Cashed
Draw 3.30 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.75 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 9 markets @ 1u each 4 W · 5 L −1.14u −13% ROI