Home Win
50.3%
Draw
26.4%
Away Win
23.3%
| Best Bet: | Under 2.5 |
| Odds: | 1.96 |
| Estimated Probability: | 61.12% |
| Implied Probability: | 51.02% |
| Expected Value: | 1.198 |
| Value Bet: | Yes ✅ |
Sturm Graz hosts Ried with a clear quality edge, boosted by a solid home defensive record against Ried's modest attack. Despite recent mixed form, Sturm Graz's home momentum and defensive resilience suggest a controlled game. Ried's away struggles and less effective defense could be exploited, but their slightly better recent points per game hints at some resistance.
- Home defensive solidity vs away attack
- Sturm's home momentum despite patchy form
- Lower scoring expectation given cautious pace
Head-to-Head Performance
Average statistics per match for the current season
| Statistic | Sturm Graz | Ried |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.15 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.54 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| Shots on Target | 4.56 | 3.54 |
| Corners | 4.5 | 3.46 |
| Possession (%) | 50.63 | 42.38 |
| Efficiency index | 103.85 | 94.05 |
| Adjusted index | 112.13 | 87.29 |
- Efficiency index — Efficiency index — reflects how well a team converts chances (xG vs goals scored).
- Adjusted index — Adjusted index — overall team strength adjusted for xG, form, attack and defense quality.