08.03.2026 17:00
Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu
Home Win
69.2%
Draw
20.6%
Away Win
10.3%
| Best Bet: | Over 2.5 |
| Odds: | 1.8 |
| Estimated Probability: | 56.92% |
| Implied Probability: | 55.56% |
| Expected Value: | 1.025 |
| Value Bet: | No ❌ |
Fenerbahce holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, boasting a strong offensive setup against Samsunspor's less robust defense. Their recent form shows resilience and goal threat, while Samsunspor struggles to keep pace, especially away. Expect Fenerbahce to control the tempo with a compact block and effective set-piece threat.
- Home advantage with superior defensive solidity
- Offensive pressure likely to exploit away vulnerabilities
- Recent form favors Fenerbahce's consistency
Given the moderate pace suggested by odds, this match could see a steady flow of chances but controlled by Fenerbahce’s tactical discipline, making them favorites to secure the win.
Head-to-Head Performance
Average statistics per match for the current season
| Statistic | Fenerbahce | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 2.17 | 1.16 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.78 | 1.2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 1.23 |
| Shots on Target | 5.61 | 3.6 |
| Corners | 6.43 | 5.96 |
| Possession (%) | 55.96 | 53.88 |
| Efficiency index | 113.06 | 94.71 |
| Adjusted index | 146.5 | 85.44 |
- Efficiency index — Efficiency index — reflects how well a team converts chances (xG vs goals scored).
- Adjusted index — Adjusted index — overall team strength adjusted for xG, form, attack and defense quality.


