Home Win
24.1%
Draw
27.5%
Away Win
48.3%
| Best Bet: | Away Win |
| Odds: | 2.5 |
| Estimated Probability: | 48.33% |
| Implied Probability: | 40% |
| Expected Value: | 1.208 |
| Value Bet: | No ❌ |
Guimaraes arrives with a clear quality edge and better recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand despite playing away. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Tondela's struggles at the back, while Guimaraes' attack should find opportunities against a home side that concedes too often. The home team’s slight pressing edge may help contain damage, but Guimaraes' consistency and tactical discipline likely tilt the balance.
- Guimaraes' defensive strength vs Tondela's attack
- Better away form and overall quality gap
- Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play
Head-to-Head Performance
Average statistics per match for the current season
| Statistic | Tondela | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 0.6 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.9 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.21 | 1.09 |
| Shots on Target | 4.1 | 3.89 |
| Corners | 3.7 | 4.44 |
| Possession (%) | 44.9 | 49.78 |
| Efficiency index | 80 | 95.5 |
| Adjusted index | 60.84 | 79.46 |
- Efficiency index — Efficiency index — reflects how well a team converts chances (xG vs goals scored).
- Adjusted index — Adjusted index — overall team strength adjusted for xG, form, attack and defense quality.


