P
Prognosist
P
⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Spain La Liga Real Sociedad — Mallorca

Match Real Sociedad vs Mallorca September 24, 2025

Spain   /   La Liga
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
Home · last 5 L D D L D
Kick-off
Wed 24 Sep · 19:30
1:0
Full-time
Mallorca
Mallorca
W D L L W Away · last 5
Reale Arena · Donostia-San Sebastián Referee Iosu Galech Apezteguia, Spain
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 70% · book 1.77
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 82% · book 1.22
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 60% · book 1.83
Total goals
1
1 · 0
xG (open play)
2.38 – 0.61
Δ +1.77
Possession
64% – 36%
AI accuracy
5 / 8
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

This match features two sides struggling for form and consistency, with both teams showing defensive vulnerabilities and limited attacking threat recently. Real Sociedad’s home advantage is somewhat offset by their poor recent results and modest scoring output, while Mallorca’s away performances have been similarly underwhelming. The game is likely to be cagey and low-scoring, with a strong possibility of a draw given the balanced but subdued attacking profiles and defensive fragility on both sides. The market odds suggest a home win favorite, but the model sees value in cautious outcomes and under goals markets.

Our top recommendation is to consider the home team to avoid defeat, supported by their home ground familiarity despite recent struggles. Additionally, the under 2.5 goals market offers good value reflecting the expected tight nature of the contest. BTTS is less favored given both teams’ inefficiency in front of goal and defensive lapses that have not translated into high scoring games.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

RSO 4-3-3 · MAL 5-3-2
Subs used · RSO
64' Turrientes ↑ · Soler
74' Munoz ↑ · Gomez
75' Marin ↑ · Mendez
85' Guedes ↑ · Kubo
85' Sadiq ↑ · Barrenetxea
Subs used · MAL
44' Costa ↑ · Mascarell
62' Domenech ↑ · Lopez
63' Darder ↑ · Sanchez
79' Morey Bauza ↑ · Maffeo
79' Mojica ↑ · Lato

📊 Statistics

RSO 10 MAL
64%
Possession (%)
36%
2.38
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.61
17
Total Shots
7
4
Shots on Target
3
10
Shots off Target
3
12
Shots Inside Box
6
11
Corner Kicks
2
2
Offsides
0
13
Fouls
15
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
71%
2
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

15 · 1 – 0
20'
Pablo Maffeo
Yellow Card
Brais Méndez
Yellow Card
34'
34'
Antonio Sánchez
Yellow Card
44'
Samu Costa ↓ · O. Mascarell ↑
Substitution 1
Half-time · 0 – 0
M. Oyarzabal
Assist · A. Barrenetxea · 1–0
49'
62'
M. Domenech ↓ · D. Lopez ↑
Substitution 2
63'
S. Darder ↓ · A. Sanchez ↑
Substitution 3
B. Turrientes ↓ · C. Soler ↑
Substitution 1
64'
A. Munoz ↓ · S. Gomez ↑
Substitution 2
74'
P. Marin ↓ · B. Mendez ↑
Substitution 3
75'
79'
M. Morey Bauza ↓ · P. Maffeo ↑
Substitution 4
79'
J. Mojica ↓ · T. Lato ↑
Substitution 5
G. Guedes ↓ · T. Kubo ↑
Substitution 4
85'
U. Sadiq ↓ · A. Barrenetxea ↑
Substitution 5
85'
Beñat Turrientes
Yellow Card
86'
Full-time · 1 – 0

Bet recap · markets settled

8 · 5 W · 3 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 1.77 70% Cashed +0.77 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.22 82% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
BTTS No 1.83 60% Cashed +0.83 Cashed
Home Team Total Under 0.5 4.50 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Team Total Under 0.5 2.31 40% Cashed +1.31 Cashed
Home Win 1.84 54% Cashed +0.84 Cashed
Draw 3.74 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.86 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 8 markets @ 1u each 5 W · 3 L +0.97u +12% ROI