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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Spain La Liga Athletic Club — Girona

Match Athletic Club vs Girona September 23, 2025

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Home · last 5 W L L D L
Kick-off
Tue 23 Sep · 17:00
1:1
Full-time
Girona
Girona
L D D L D Away · last 5
Referee José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 65% · book 1.80
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 2.05
Miss
AH Home 0
AH Home 0
AI 70% · book 1.17
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
1.41 – 0.68
Δ +0.73
Possession
67% – 33%
AI accuracy
3 / 8
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.05 — +13.0% better than the market.

Athletic Club arrives with a clear home advantage and a strong recent run of form, having won three of their last five matches. Their attacking play at home is solid, and they maintain a balanced defensive shape. Girona, on the other hand, struggles away from home with a poor recent record and limited offensive threat, while conceding frequently. The model favors a home victory with a controlled tempo and moderate goal expectancy. The likelihood of both teams scoring is moderate but leans slightly towards no, given Girona's attacking struggles. Totals around 2.5 goals appear balanced, with a slight edge towards over, reflecting Athletic's home attacking edge.

Recommended focus is on the home win and Asian Handicap in favor of Athletic Club, with additional value seen in BTTS No and Under 2.5 Goals markets. The draw remains a less likely but possible outcome given Girona's defensive vulnerabilities and Athletic's occasional lapses.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.05 ✓ Cashed
AI 55% Implied 49% +1.05u
+105%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BIL 4-2-3-1 · GIR 4-2-3-1
Subs used · BIL
46' Berenguer ↑ · Serrano
46' Areso ↑ · Gorosabel
46' Ruiz de Galarreta ↑ · Vesga
46' Berchiche ↑ · Boiro
81' Navarro ↑ · Sancet
Subs used · GIR
33' Portu ↑ · van de Beek
76' Martinez ↑ · Gil
76' Asprilla ↑ · E. Solis Romero
86' Stuani ↑ · Vanat
86' Kourouma ↑ · Rincon

📊 Statistics

BIL 11 GIR
67%
Possession (%)
33%
1.41
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.68
17
Total Shots
6
5
Shots on Target
3
7
Shots off Target
2
14
Shots Inside Box
4
8
Corner Kicks
1
0
Offsides
5
19
Fouls
15
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
75%
0
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

14 · 1 – 1
9'
A. Ounahi
Assist · B. Gil · 0–1
33'
Portu ↓ · D. van de Beek ↑
Substitution 1
Half-time · 0 – 1
A. Berenguer ↓ · N. Serrano ↑
Substitution 1
46'
J. Areso ↓ · A. Gorosabel ↑
Substitution 2
46'
I. Ruiz de Galarreta ↓ · M. Vesga ↑
Substitution 3
46'
Y. Berchiche ↓ · A. Boiro ↑
Substitution 4
46'
M. Jauregizar
1–1
48'
68'
Azzedine Ounahi
Yellow Card
76'
A. Martinez ↓ · B. Gil ↑
Substitution 2
76'
Y. Asprilla ↓ · J. E. Solis Romero ↑
Substitution 3
R. Navarro ↓ · O. Sancet ↑
Substitution 5
81'
86'
C. Stuani ↓ · V. Vanat ↑
Substitution 4
86'
L. Kourouma ↓ · H. Rincon ↑
Substitution 5
90+1'
Iván Martín
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

8 · 3 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 1.80 65% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.05 55% Cashed +1.05 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.17 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home -0.5 1.45 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Team Total Over 0.5 1.13 80% Cashed +0.13 Cashed
Home Win 1.50 68% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.75 18% Cashed +3.75 Cashed
Away Win 8.28 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 8 markets @ 1u each 3 W · 5 L −0.07u −1% ROI
Best bet of the night · Under 2.5
BIL – GIR @ 2.05
+13.0%
Edge
Forecast →