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⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football Germany Germany Bundesliga FSV Mainz 05 — Union Berlin

Match FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin May 10, 2026

FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
Home · last 5 D L W L W
Kick-off
Sun 10 May · 17:30
1:3
Full-time
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
L L D W W Away · last 5
Mewa Arena · Mainz Referee Florian Exner, Germany
Miss
Home Win
Home Win
AI 60% · book 1.79
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 47% · book 2.23
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 47% · book 2.20
Total goals
4
1 · 3
xG (open play)
1.50 – 2.77
Δ −1.27
Possession
53% – 47%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

FSV Mainz 05 holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, backed by a stronger defensive setup and recent positive form. Their pressing and compact block could stifle Union Berlin, who struggle on the road and show patchy recent results. The home side’s offensive edge against Union’s defense suggests Mainz can control the game tempo, especially in a moderately paced match hinted by balanced goal odds.

  • Mainz’s home defensive solidity vs Union’s attack
  • Recent form favors Mainz’s confidence
  • Moderate pace likely to suit Mainz’s structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

MAI 3-5-2 · UNI 4-2-3-1
Subs used · MAI
16' Potulski ↑ · da Costa
70' Veratschnig ↑ · Caci
70' Jae-Sung ↑ · Nebel
81' Weiper ↑ · Tietz
81' Sieb ↑ · Becker
Subs used · UNI
60' Woo-Yeong ↑ · Burcu
60' Kohn ↑ · Rothe
60' Schafer ↑ · Ansah
81' Juranovic ↑ · Trimmel
89' Skarke ↑ · Burke

📊 Statistics

MAI 13 UNI
53%
Possession (%)
47%
1.50
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.77
14
Total Shots
16
3
Shots on Target
9
7
Shots off Target
6
10
Shots Inside Box
12
7
Corner Kicks
8
2
Offsides
0
11
Fouls
10
84%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
2
Yellow Cards
1
6
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

17 · 1 – 3
A. Caci
Yellow Card
7'
K. Potulski ↓ · D. da Costa ↑
Substitution 1
16'
38'
A. Ilic
Assist · A. Kemlein · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
S. Becker
Assist · P. Nebel · 1–1
48'
60'
Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓ · L. Burcu ↑
Substitution 1
60'
D. Kohn ↓ · T. Rothe ↑
Substitution 2
60'
A. Schafer ↓ · I. Ansah ↑
Substitution 3
N. Veratschnig ↓ · A. Caci ↑
Substitution 2
70'
Lee Jae-Sung ↓ · P. Nebel ↑
Substitution 3
70'
Lee Jae-Sung
Yellow Card
75'
80'
D. Kohn
Yellow Card
N. Weiper ↓ · P. Tietz ↑
Substitution 4
81'
A. Sieb ↓ · S. Becker ↑
Substitution 5
81'
81'
J. Juranovic ↓ · C. Trimmel ↑
Substitution 4
88'
O. Burke
Assist · A. Ilic · 1–2
89'
T. Skarke ↓ · O. Burke ↑
Substitution 5
90+1'
J. Juranovic
Assist · T. Skarke · 1–3
Full-time · 1 – 3

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Home Win 1.79 1.70 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.23 2.34 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.20 2.19 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.76 1.62 53% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.73 1.64 53% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.75 2.55 31% Cashed +1.75 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.14 2.15 40% Cashed +1.14 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.23 1.19 83% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.44 1.50 69% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.32 1.27 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 14.40 14.93 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.33 4.50 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.04 1.03 93% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Draw 4.12 4.05 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.22 1.17 76% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Away Win 4.68 4.63 17% Cashed +3.68 Cashed
AH Away 0 3.30 3.45 17% Cashed +2.30 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L +1.62u +10% ROI