P
Prognosist
P
⚽ Football 📈 Forecasts
Football France Ligue 1 Toulouse — Marseille

Match Toulouse vs Marseille March 7, 2026

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Toulouse
Toulouse
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 07 Mar · 20:05
0:1
Full-time
Marseille
Marseille
L D L W W Away · last 5
Stadium de Toulouse · Toulouse Referee Bastien Dechepy, France
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 58% · book 1.88
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 50% · book 2.39
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 60% · book 1.67
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
0.98 – 0.49
Δ +0.49
Possession
49% – 51%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.88 — +8.6% better than the market.

Marseille holds a clear quality edge over Toulouse, reflected in their stronger overall squad and offensive capabilities. Despite both teams showing inconsistent recent form, Marseille's attacking threat against Toulouse's leaky defense suggests they can control the game. Toulouse's home advantage is moderate but tempered by their defensive vulnerabilities. Expect a lively match with a good chance of goals given the attacking mismatch and the market's lean towards over 2.5 goals.

  • Marseille's superior offensive firepower
  • Toulouse's defensive struggles at home
  • Potential for an open, goal-rich encounter

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 1.88 ✗ Lost
AI 58% Implied 53% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

TOU 3-4-2-1 · MAR 3-4-1-2
Subs used · TOU
46' Hidalgo ↑ · Emersonn
69' Vossah ↑ · Casseres
78' Russell-Rowe ↑ · Kamanzi
79' Vignolo ↑ · Methalie
84' Sauer ↑ · Demba
Subs used · MAR
66' Nnadi ↑ · Kondogbia
66' Gouiri ↑ · Greenwood
82' Vermeeren ↑ · Timber
83' Emerson ↑ · Aubameyang

📊 Statistics

TOU 01 MAR
49%
Possession (%)
51%
0.98
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.49
12
Total Shots
10
2
Shots on Target
3
7
Shots off Target
6
9
Shots Inside Box
7
4
Corner Kicks
2
3
Offsides
1
15
Fouls
14
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
84%
2
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

15 · 0 – 1
12'
Facundo Medina
Yellow Card
18'
M. Greenwood
Assist · I. Paixao · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
S. Hidalgo ↓ · Emersonn ↑
Substitution 1
46'
Aron Dønnum
Yellow Card
59'
59'
Mason Greenwood
Yellow Card
60'
Timothy Weah
Yellow Card
Mark McKenzie
Yellow Card
64'
66'
T. Nnadi ↓ · G. Kondogbia ↑
Substitution 1
66'
A. Gouiri ↓ · M. Greenwood ↑
Substitution 2
A. Vossah ↓ · C. Casseres ↑
Substitution 2
69'
J. Russell-Rowe ↓ · W. Kamanzi ↑
Substitution 3
78'
J. Vignolo ↓ · D. Methalie ↑
Substitution 4
79'
82'
A. Vermeeren ↓ · Q. Timber ↑
Substitution 3
83'
Emerson ↓ · P. Aubameyang ↑
Substitution 4
M. Sauer ↓ · P. Demba ↑
Substitution 5
84'
Full-time · 0 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.88 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.39 50% Cashed +1.39 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.67 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.28 40% Cashed +1.28 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.75 50% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.07 42% Cashed +1.07 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.65 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.25 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.42 76% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.10 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.42 64% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Home Win 3.13 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.27 80% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.05 94% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Draw 3.64 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.09 20% Cashed +3.09 Cashed
Under 0.5 12.80 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −0.53u −3% ROI
Best bet of the night · Over 2.5
TOU – MAR @ 1.88
+8.6%
Edge
Forecast →